Recent polling from state-affiliated firms such as FOM and VTsIOM places A Just Russia near or slightly above the 5% threshold required for proportional representation seats in the September 18–20 State Duma election, with estimates ranging from 4–7%. Independent surveys show similar results clustered around the barrier. The party maintains organizational presence through single-mandate candidacies and has repositioned around pro-war and social policy themes. In Russia’s managed electoral system, analysts note the Kremlin’s interest in preserving a limited set of systemic opposition parties to channel votes and sustain controlled pluralism, which could influence administrative outcomes. Yabloko’s exclusion from the ballot may redirect a modest share of protest support. Trader pricing at 59% for clearing the threshold reflects these narrow polling margins and structural incentives rather than decisive momentum.