Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon secured the GOP nomination in the March 3 primary with 81% of the vote, setting up a general election matchup against Democrat Jason Pearce, who narrowly won his primary 52%-48%, in solidly Republican TX-04 on November 3. The district's Cook PVI of R+12 and consistent Solid Republican ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball reflect strong historical GOP performance, including Fallon's 68% win in 2024 and Donald Trump's 61% there. Fallon's fundraising dominance—over $1 million cash on hand versus Pearce's under $1,000 as of late April—bolsters trader consensus implying an 85.5% Republican win probability amid a low-turnout, safe seat dynamic.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วTX-04 House Election Winner
TX-04 House Election Winner
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
86%
Democratic Party
15%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$1,656 ปริมาณ
86%
Democratic Party
$1,842 ปริมาณ
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon secured the GOP nomination in the March 3 primary with 81% of the vote, setting up a general election matchup against Democrat Jason Pearce, who narrowly won his primary 52%-48%, in solidly Republican TX-04 on November 3. The district's Cook PVI of R+12 and consistent Solid Republican ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball reflect strong historical GOP performance, including Fallon's 68% win in 2024 and Donald Trump's 61% there. Fallon's fundraising dominance—over $1 million cash on hand versus Pearce's under $1,000 as of late April—bolsters trader consensus implying an 85.5% Republican win probability amid a low-turnout, safe seat dynamic.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,498วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon secured the GOP nomination in the March 3 primary with 81% of the vote, setting up a general election matchup against Democrat Jason Pearce, who narrowly won his primary 52%-48%, in solidly Republican TX-04 on November 3. The district's Cook PVI of R+12 and consistent Solid Republican ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball reflect strong historical GOP performance, including Fallon's 68% win in 2024 and Donald Trump's 61% there. Fallon's fundraising dominance—over $1 million cash on hand versus Pearce's under $1,000 as of late April—bolsters trader consensus implying an 85.5% Republican win probability amid a low-turnout, safe seat dynamic.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,498วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon secured the GOP nomination in the March 3 primary with 81% of the vote, setting up a general election matchup against Democrat Jason Pearce, who narrowly won his primary 52%-48%, in solidly Republican TX-04 on November 3. The district's Cook PVI of R+12 and consistent Solid Republican ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball reflect strong historical GOP performance, including Fallon's 68% win in 2024 and Donald Trump's 61% there. Fallon's fundraising dominance—over $1 million cash on hand versus Pearce's under $1,000 as of late April—bolsters trader consensus implying an 85.5% Republican win probability amid a low-turnout, safe seat dynamic.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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