Recent polling in Texas's 15th congressional district shows Democratic challenger Bobby Pulido leading incumbent Republican Monica De La Cruz by margins of 5 to 13 points, with a polling average around D+6.6 as of late September. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report have shifted the race from lean Republican to toss-up, citing Pulido's strong name recognition as a Tejano musician and competitive fundraising. The district, redrawn by Republicans and carried by Trump by 18 points in 2024, features early voting beginning October 19 ahead of the November 3 election. These developments have driven trader consensus toward Pulido while leaving room for shifts based on turnout among Hispanic voters and final campaign messaging.