Recent downward revisions to 2026 UK GDP forecasts, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, underpin the market-implied odds favoring subdued growth. The IMF and OECD now project 0.8% expansion for the year, down 0.5 percentage points, reflecting higher input costs, softer business confidence, and tighter financial conditions. This aligns with the 0-1% bucket leading at 47.5% implied probability, followed closely by 1-2% at 39.6%, as Q1 2026 GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter per ONS data—accelerating from Q4 2025 but unlikely to sustain momentum. The Bank of England’s April scenarios highlight risks of wider spare capacity and persistent inflation above target, with upcoming CPI and labor releases poised to influence trader reassessments of the full-year outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วUK Annual GDP Growth 2026
UK Annual GDP Growth 2026
4-5% 33.5%
0-1% 23%
2-3% 6.0%
3-4% 4.2%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Feb 12, 2027
<0
38%
0-1%
48%
1-2%
40%
2-3%
16%
3-4%
6%
4-5%
34%
5%+
30%
4-5% 33.5%
0-1% 23%
2-3% 6.0%
3-4% 4.2%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Feb 12, 2027
<0
$345 ปริมาณ
38%
0-1%
$386 ปริมาณ
48%
1-2%
$210 ปริมาณ
40%
2-3%
$247 ปริมาณ
16%
3-4%
$201 ปริมาณ
6%
4-5%
$428 ปริมาณ
34%
5%+
$252 ปริมาณ
30%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent downward revisions to 2026 UK GDP forecasts, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, underpin the market-implied odds favoring subdued growth. The IMF and OECD now project 0.8% expansion for the year, down 0.5 percentage points, reflecting higher input costs, softer business confidence, and tighter financial conditions. This aligns with the 0-1% bucket leading at 47.5% implied probability, followed closely by 1-2% at 39.6%, as Q1 2026 GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter per ONS data—accelerating from Q4 2025 but unlikely to sustain momentum. The Bank of England’s April scenarios highlight risks of wider spare capacity and persistent inflation above target, with upcoming CPI and labor releases poised to influence trader reassessments of the full-year outcome.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,068วันสิ้นสุด
Feb 12, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent downward revisions to 2026 UK GDP forecasts, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, underpin the market-implied odds favoring subdued growth. The IMF and OECD now project 0.8% expansion for the year, down 0.5 percentage points, reflecting higher input costs, softer business confidence, and tighter financial conditions. This aligns with the 0-1% bucket leading at 47.5% implied probability, followed closely by 1-2% at 39.6%, as Q1 2026 GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter per ONS data—accelerating from Q4 2025 but unlikely to sustain momentum. The Bank of England’s April scenarios highlight risks of wider spare capacity and persistent inflation above target, with upcoming CPI and labor releases poised to influence trader reassessments of the full-year outcome.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,068วันสิ้นสุด
Feb 12, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent downward revisions to 2026 UK GDP forecasts, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, underpin the market-implied odds favoring subdued growth. The IMF and OECD now project 0.8% expansion for the year, down 0.5 percentage points, reflecting higher input costs, softer business confidence, and tighter financial conditions. This aligns with the 0-1% bucket leading at 47.5% implied probability, followed closely by 1-2% at 39.6%, as Q1 2026 GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter per ONS data—accelerating from Q4 2025 but unlikely to sustain momentum. The Bank of England’s April scenarios highlight risks of wider spare capacity and persistent inflation above target, with upcoming CPI and labor releases poised to influence trader reassessments of the full-year outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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