Trader sentiment for Japan's Q1 2026 GDP growth reflects a closely contested range centered on moderate expansion, with private forecasts from ten major think tanks averaging 0.5% quarter-on-quarter growth—or roughly 1.8% annualized—supported by resilient exports and policy measures such as gasoline tax relief and energy subsidies that bolstered personal consumption. These factors helped real wages turn positive as inflation moderated below 2% year-over-year, while semiconductor demand offset earlier tariff headwinds. The Bank of Japan and IMF projections align with this baseline of 0.8–1.0% full-year growth, though risks from elevated oil prices tied to Middle East tensions are expected to weigh more heavily in Q2 onward. With the Cabinet Office's first preliminary data due May 19, the narrow spread among the 0.3–0.5%, 0.6–0.8%, and 0.9–1.1% bands captures uncertainty over final revisions and seasonal adjustments.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วJapan GDP growth in Q1 2026?
Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026?
0.9–1.1% 15.0%
-0.3– -0.1% 4.3%
1.2%+ 2.8%
0.0–0.2% 1.7%
ใหม่
ใหม่
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
4%
0.0–0.2%
2%
0.3–0.5%
49%
0.6–0.8%
32%
0.9–1.1%
32%
1.2%+
3%
0.9–1.1% 15.0%
-0.3– -0.1% 4.3%
1.2%+ 2.8%
0.0–0.2% 1.7%
ใหม่
ใหม่
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
$1,057 ปริมาณ
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
$650 ปริมาณ
4%
0.0–0.2%
$994 ปริมาณ
2%
0.3–0.5%
$792 ปริมาณ
49%
0.6–0.8%
$447 ปริมาณ
32%
0.9–1.1%
$683 ปริมาณ
32%
1.2%+
$2,699 ปริมาณ
3%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTrader sentiment for Japan's Q1 2026 GDP growth reflects a closely contested range centered on moderate expansion, with private forecasts from ten major think tanks averaging 0.5% quarter-on-quarter growth—or roughly 1.8% annualized—supported by resilient exports and policy measures such as gasoline tax relief and energy subsidies that bolstered personal consumption. These factors helped real wages turn positive as inflation moderated below 2% year-over-year, while semiconductor demand offset earlier tariff headwinds. The Bank of Japan and IMF projections align with this baseline of 0.8–1.0% full-year growth, though risks from elevated oil prices tied to Middle East tensions are expected to weigh more heavily in Q2 onward. With the Cabinet Office's first preliminary data due May 19, the narrow spread among the 0.3–0.5%, 0.6–0.8%, and 0.9–1.1% bands captures uncertainty over final revisions and seasonal adjustments.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,322วันสิ้นสุด
May 19, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTrader sentiment for Japan's Q1 2026 GDP growth reflects a closely contested range centered on moderate expansion, with private forecasts from ten major think tanks averaging 0.5% quarter-on-quarter growth—or roughly 1.8% annualized—supported by resilient exports and policy measures such as gasoline tax relief and energy subsidies that bolstered personal consumption. These factors helped real wages turn positive as inflation moderated below 2% year-over-year, while semiconductor demand offset earlier tariff headwinds. The Bank of Japan and IMF projections align with this baseline of 0.8–1.0% full-year growth, though risks from elevated oil prices tied to Middle East tensions are expected to weigh more heavily in Q2 onward. With the Cabinet Office's first preliminary data due May 19, the narrow spread among the 0.3–0.5%, 0.6–0.8%, and 0.9–1.1% bands captures uncertainty over final revisions and seasonal adjustments.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,322วันสิ้นสุด
May 19, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment for Japan's Q1 2026 GDP growth reflects a closely contested range centered on moderate expansion, with private forecasts from ten major think tanks averaging 0.5% quarter-on-quarter growth—or roughly 1.8% annualized—supported by resilient exports and policy measures such as gasoline tax relief and energy subsidies that bolstered personal consumption. These factors helped real wages turn positive as inflation moderated below 2% year-over-year, while semiconductor demand offset earlier tariff headwinds. The Bank of Japan and IMF projections align with this baseline of 0.8–1.0% full-year growth, though risks from elevated oil prices tied to Middle East tensions are expected to weigh more heavily in Q2 onward. With the Cabinet Office's first preliminary data due May 19, the narrow spread among the 0.3–0.5%, 0.6–0.8%, and 0.9–1.1% bands captures uncertainty over final revisions and seasonal adjustments.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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