Google's repeated delays to the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship—originally targeted for June after its May I/O 2026 tease—stem from shortfalls in coding and agentic performance despite partner testing, pushing the market-implied probability toward mid-to-late October windows while keeping "no release by November 1" near 16%. Traders weigh this against Google's rapid cadence of lighter 3.8 Flash and Live variants released in early-to-mid September, which demonstrate efficient iteration on the 3.x series but highlight the Pro's slower path to frontier benchmarks. Competitive pressure from rivals' agentic models and internal focus on Gemini 4 pre-training add uncertainty, with any API changelog, earnings commentary, or developer event serving as near-term swing factors for resolution timing.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วOctober 12–October 18 22%
No release by November 1 18%
October 5–October 11 16.2%
October 26–November 1 14.9%
$52,379 ปริมาณ
$52,379 ปริมาณ
Nov 1, 2026
September 14–September 20
4%
September 21–September 27
5%
September 28–October 4
5%
October 5–October 11
16%
October 12–October 18
22%
October 19–October 25
15%
October 26–November 1
15%
No release by November 1
18%
October 12–October 18 22%
No release by November 1 18%
October 5–October 11 16.2%
October 26–November 1 14.9%
$52,379 ปริมาณ
$52,379 ปริมาณ
Nov 1, 2026
September 14–September 20
$412 ปริมาณ
4%
September 21–September 27
$749 ปริมาณ
5%
September 28–October 4
$1,501 ปริมาณ
5%
October 5–October 11
$422 ปริมาณ
16%
October 12–October 18
$2,693 ปริมาณ
22%
October 19–October 25
$1,093 ปริมาณ
15%
October 26–November 1
$585 ปริมาณ
15%
No release by November 1
$41,928 ปริมาณ
18%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's repeated delays to the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship—originally targeted for June after its May I/O 2026 tease—stem from shortfalls in coding and agentic performance despite partner testing, pushing the market-implied probability toward mid-to-late October windows while keeping "no release by November 1" near 16%. Traders weigh this against Google's rapid cadence of lighter 3.8 Flash and Live variants released in early-to-mid September, which demonstrate efficient iteration on the 3.x series but highlight the Pro's slower path to frontier benchmarks. Competitive pressure from rivals' agentic models and internal focus on Gemini 4 pre-training add uncertainty, with any API changelog, earnings commentary, or developer event serving as near-term swing factors for resolution timing.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$52,379วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's repeated delays to the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship—originally targeted for June after its May I/O 2026 tease—stem from shortfalls in coding and agentic performance despite partner testing, pushing the market-implied probability toward mid-to-late October windows while keeping "no release by November 1" near 16%. Traders weigh this against Google's rapid cadence of lighter 3.8 Flash and Live variants released in early-to-mid September, which demonstrate efficient iteration on the 3.x series but highlight the Pro's slower path to frontier benchmarks. Competitive pressure from rivals' agentic models and internal focus on Gemini 4 pre-training add uncertainty, with any API changelog, earnings commentary, or developer event serving as near-term swing factors for resolution timing.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$52,379วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Google's repeated delays to the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship—originally targeted for June after its May I/O 2026 tease—stem from shortfalls in coding and agentic performance despite partner testing, pushing the market-implied probability toward mid-to-late October windows while keeping "no release by November 1" near 16%. Traders weigh this against Google's rapid cadence of lighter 3.8 Flash and Live variants released in early-to-mid September, which demonstrate efficient iteration on the 3.x series but highlight the Pro's slower path to frontier benchmarks. Competitive pressure from rivals' agentic models and internal focus on Gemini 4 pre-training add uncertainty, with any API changelog, earnings commentary, or developer event serving as near-term swing factors for resolution timing.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
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