Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 2026 ranking as the second-hottest year on record (57.5% implied probability), with a strong chance of first (35.5%), driven by official forecasts from NOAA, Copernicus, and Berkeley Earth projecting global mean surface temperatures of 1.35–1.58°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—comparable to or exceeding 2024's record but trailing it slightly in most models. A developing El Niño, with 61% NOAA probability of emergence by May–July and persistence through year-end, underpins this positioning after 2026's early months ranked moderately (e.g., March as the second- or fourth-warmest March). The ongoing anthropogenic warming trend amid transitioning ENSO conditions elevates top-two odds, though aerosol variability and model spread introduce uncertainty; watch June IRI/CPC updates for refined outlooks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วปี 2026 จะติดอันดับปีที่ร้อนแรงที่สุดในประวัติการณ์ที่ไหน?
ปี 2026 จะติดอันดับปีที่ร้อนแรงที่สุดในประวัติการณ์ที่ไหน?
2 57%
1 36%
4 2.9%
3 2.4%
$2,807,649 ปริมาณ
$2,807,649 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
1
36%
2
57%
3
2%
4
3%
5
1%
6 หรือต่ำกว่า
2%
2 57%
1 36%
4 2.9%
3 2.4%
$2,807,649 ปริมาณ
$2,807,649 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
1
$453,011 ปริมาณ
36%
2
$325,018 ปริมาณ
57%
3
$425,322 ปริมาณ
2%
4
$415,261 ปริมาณ
3%
5
$727,264 ปริมาณ
1%
6 หรือต่ำกว่า
$464,272 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 2026 ranking as the second-hottest year on record (57.5% implied probability), with a strong chance of first (35.5%), driven by official forecasts from NOAA, Copernicus, and Berkeley Earth projecting global mean surface temperatures of 1.35–1.58°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—comparable to or exceeding 2024's record but trailing it slightly in most models. A developing El Niño, with 61% NOAA probability of emergence by May–July and persistence through year-end, underpins this positioning after 2026's early months ranked moderately (e.g., March as the second- or fourth-warmest March). The ongoing anthropogenic warming trend amid transitioning ENSO conditions elevates top-two odds, though aerosol variability and model spread introduce uncertainty; watch June IRI/CPC updates for refined outlooks.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,807,649วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 2026 ranking as the second-hottest year on record (57.5% implied probability), with a strong chance of first (35.5%), driven by official forecasts from NOAA, Copernicus, and Berkeley Earth projecting global mean surface temperatures of 1.35–1.58°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—comparable to or exceeding 2024's record but trailing it slightly in most models. A developing El Niño, with 61% NOAA probability of emergence by May–July and persistence through year-end, underpins this positioning after 2026's early months ranked moderately (e.g., March as the second- or fourth-warmest March). The ongoing anthropogenic warming trend amid transitioning ENSO conditions elevates top-two odds, though aerosol variability and model spread introduce uncertainty; watch June IRI/CPC updates for refined outlooks.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,807,649วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 2026 ranking as the second-hottest year on record (57.5% implied probability), with a strong chance of first (35.5%), driven by official forecasts from NOAA, Copernicus, and Berkeley Earth projecting global mean surface temperatures of 1.35–1.58°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—comparable to or exceeding 2024's record but trailing it slightly in most models. A developing El Niño, with 61% NOAA probability of emergence by May–July and persistence through year-end, underpins this positioning after 2026's early months ranked moderately (e.g., March as the second- or fourth-warmest March). The ongoing anthropogenic warming trend amid transitioning ENSO conditions elevates top-two odds, though aerosol variability and model spread introduce uncertainty; watch June IRI/CPC updates for refined outlooks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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