This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.High-profile departures from the Trump administration, including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's resignation in late April 2026—marking the third cabinet-level exit in weeks following Attorney General Pam Bondi's ouster and DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's pressured exit—have intensified trader consensus on further turnover before 2027. FBI Director Kash Patel leads Polymarket odds at 66% implied probability of leaving, fueled by reports of internal clashes and performance scrutiny echoing first-term patterns of rapid firings. Tulsi Gabbard follows at 61%, amid DNI confirmation tensions. With 2026 midterms looming, policy disputes and loyalty tests could accelerate additional resignations or reassignments among acting and confirmed officials.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
High-profile departures from the Trump administration, including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's resignation in late April 2026—marking the third cabinet-level exit in weeks following Attorney General Pam Bondi's ouster and DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's pressured exit—have intensified trader consensus on further turnover before 2027. FBI Director Kash Patel leads Polymarket odds at 66% implied probability of leaving, fueled by reports of internal clashes and performance scrutiny echoing first-term patterns of rapid firings. Tulsi Gabbard follows at 61%, amid DNI confirmation tensions. With 2026 midterms looming, policy disputes and loyalty tests could accelerate additional resignations or reassignments among acting and confirmed officials.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
May 5 2026
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth censures Senator Mark Kelly over military video
Pete Hegseth dips to 37%4%
Pete Hegseth censured Senator Mark Kelly for participating in a video urging troops to resist unlawful orders, escalating political tensions and affecting Hegseth’s market price.
Apr 2 2026
Pam Bondi announces departure as Attorney General amid legal challenges
Susie Wiles jumps to 39%5%
Attorney General Pam Bondi announced her departure following court rulings that challenged the legality of several Trump-appointed prosecutors, including herself. This event influenced the market prices for Bondi and related figures like Lee Zeldin.
Mar 10 2026
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick linked to Jeffrey Epstein in released files
Howard Lutnick drops to 28%8%
Documents released by the Justice Department revealed Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick planned a visit to Jeffrey Epstein’s private island in 2012, contradicting prior statements. This association led to calls for his resignation and affected his market price.
Feb 27 2026
Trump administration takes punitive action against AI company Anthropic
Pete Hegseth surges to 41%17%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the Trump administration sought to declare Anthropic a supply chain risk over a contract dispute, leading to a federal judge blocking the action. White House chief of staff Susie Wiles met with Anthropic's CEO to discuss AI technology, impacting their market prices.
Feb 6 2026
Trump’s racist post about Obamas deleted after backlash
Susie Wiles jumps to 39%5%
President Trump deleted a racist social media post about the Obamas after bipartisan backlash, with White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt defending the pro-family environment in the White House. This event influenced perceptions of Susie Wiles and the administration's image, affecting her market price.
Jan 30 2026
FBI search of Georgia election offices cites years-old fraud claims
Tulsi Gabbard rises to 40%1%
The FBI obtained a search warrant for Fulton County election offices based on long-discredited claims of fraud in the 2020 election, initiating a high-profile investigation. Tulsi Gabbard's presence at the search raised concerns about politicization and affected her market price.
Dec 30 2025
Howard Lutnick’s name appears in lawsuit over FBI agent firings
Howard Lutnick jumps to 28%7%
The lawsuit cited Director Kash Patel’s role in firing agents, indirectly implicating Lutnick, a senior advisor, and raising questions about his future in the administration, nudging his price upward.
Dec 22 2025
Kristi Noem announces DHS fraud investigation in Minneapolis
Kristi Noem surges to 65%15%
Noem’s public announcement of a DHS fraud probe linked her directly to a major enforcement action, increasing speculation that she might be reassigned or step down, lifting her departure odds.
Dec 20 2025
Tulsi Gabbard appears in FBI’s Georgia election‑office search
Tulsi Gabbard surges to 42%15%
Gabbard’s presence at the high‑profile search tied her directly to a controversial FBI operation, raising doubts about her staying in the administration and pushing her market price up.
Dec 15 2025
FBI appoints co‑deputy director after Bongino’s departure
Kash Patel surges to 78%20%
The appointment of Christopher Raia as co‑deputy director signaled a shift in FBI leadership, increasing expectations that Patel’s role could be diminished, further lifting Patel’s departure probability.
Dec 2 2025
Kristi Noem announces DHS fraud investigation in Minneapolis
Kristi Noem rises to 51%1%
As Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem disclosed a fraud probe targeting a large childcare fraud scheme in Minneapolis, signaling active involvement in enforcement and increasing speculation about her tenure in the administration.
Dec 1 2025
FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino announces resignation plan
Kash Patel surges to 63%24%
Bongino said he will resign next month, prompting speculation about instability in the FBI under Director Kash Patel and raising expectations that Patel may be replaced, boosting odds of Patel’s departure.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.High-profile departures from the Trump administration, including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's resignation in late April 2026—marking the third cabinet-level exit in weeks following Attorney General Pam Bondi's ouster and DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's pressured exit—have intensified trader consensus on further turnover before 2027. FBI Director Kash Patel leads Polymarket odds at 66% implied probability of leaving, fueled by reports of internal clashes and performance scrutiny echoing first-term patterns of rapid firings. Tulsi Gabbard follows at 61%, amid DNI confirmation tensions. With 2026 midterms looming, policy disputes and loyalty tests could accelerate additional resignations or reassignments among acting and confirmed officials.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
High-profile departures from the Trump administration, including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's resignation in late April 2026—marking the third cabinet-level exit in weeks following Attorney General Pam Bondi's ouster and DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's pressured exit—have intensified trader consensus on further turnover before 2027. FBI Director Kash Patel leads Polymarket odds at 66% implied probability of leaving, fueled by reports of internal clashes and performance scrutiny echoing first-term patterns of rapid firings. Tulsi Gabbard follows at 61%, amid DNI confirmation tensions. With 2026 midterms looming, policy disputes and loyalty tests could accelerate additional resignations or reassignments among acting and confirmed officials.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
May 5 2026
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth censures Senator Mark Kelly over military video
Pete Hegseth dips to 37%4%
Pete Hegseth censured Senator Mark Kelly for participating in a video urging troops to resist unlawful orders, escalating political tensions and affecting Hegseth’s market price.
Apr 2 2026
Pam Bondi announces departure as Attorney General amid legal challenges
Susie Wiles jumps to 39%5%
Attorney General Pam Bondi announced her departure following court rulings that challenged the legality of several Trump-appointed prosecutors, including herself. This event influenced the market prices for Bondi and related figures like Lee Zeldin.
Mar 10 2026
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick linked to Jeffrey Epstein in released files
Howard Lutnick drops to 28%8%
Documents released by the Justice Department revealed Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick planned a visit to Jeffrey Epstein’s private island in 2012, contradicting prior statements. This association led to calls for his resignation and affected his market price.
Feb 27 2026
Trump administration takes punitive action against AI company Anthropic
Pete Hegseth surges to 41%17%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the Trump administration sought to declare Anthropic a supply chain risk over a contract dispute, leading to a federal judge blocking the action. White House chief of staff Susie Wiles met with Anthropic's CEO to discuss AI technology, impacting their market prices.
Feb 6 2026
Trump’s racist post about Obamas deleted after backlash
Susie Wiles jumps to 39%5%
President Trump deleted a racist social media post about the Obamas after bipartisan backlash, with White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt defending the pro-family environment in the White House. This event influenced perceptions of Susie Wiles and the administration's image, affecting her market price.
Jan 30 2026
FBI search of Georgia election offices cites years-old fraud claims
Tulsi Gabbard rises to 40%1%
The FBI obtained a search warrant for Fulton County election offices based on long-discredited claims of fraud in the 2020 election, initiating a high-profile investigation. Tulsi Gabbard's presence at the search raised concerns about politicization and affected her market price.
Dec 30 2025
Howard Lutnick’s name appears in lawsuit over FBI agent firings
Howard Lutnick jumps to 28%7%
The lawsuit cited Director Kash Patel’s role in firing agents, indirectly implicating Lutnick, a senior advisor, and raising questions about his future in the administration, nudging his price upward.
Dec 22 2025
Kristi Noem announces DHS fraud investigation in Minneapolis
Kristi Noem surges to 65%15%
Noem’s public announcement of a DHS fraud probe linked her directly to a major enforcement action, increasing speculation that she might be reassigned or step down, lifting her departure odds.
Dec 20 2025
Tulsi Gabbard appears in FBI’s Georgia election‑office search
Tulsi Gabbard surges to 42%15%
Gabbard’s presence at the high‑profile search tied her directly to a controversial FBI operation, raising doubts about her staying in the administration and pushing her market price up.
Dec 15 2025
FBI appoints co‑deputy director after Bongino’s departure
Kash Patel surges to 78%20%
The appointment of Christopher Raia as co‑deputy director signaled a shift in FBI leadership, increasing expectations that Patel’s role could be diminished, further lifting Patel’s departure probability.
Dec 2 2025
Kristi Noem announces DHS fraud investigation in Minneapolis
Kristi Noem rises to 51%1%
As Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem disclosed a fraud probe targeting a large childcare fraud scheme in Minneapolis, signaling active involvement in enforcement and increasing speculation about her tenure in the administration.
Dec 1 2025
FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino announces resignation plan
Kash Patel surges to 63%24%
Bongino said he will resign next month, prompting speculation about instability in the FBI under Director Kash Patel and raising expectations that Patel may be replaced, boosting odds of Patel’s departure.
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