Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.2% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by the absence of any PLA mobilization indicators in the critical six-week window, despite routine military exercises in the Taiwan Strait through April 2026 that Beijing described as standard training. U.S. intelligence in March confirmed China lacks commitment to near-term invasion timelines, even for 2027, amid high amphibious assault barriers, economic interdependence, and U.S. alliances like recent Balikatan drills. Today's Trump-Xi summit in China addressed Taiwan status without escalation signals, further underscoring diplomatic stasis over military adventurism. While late-breaking events such as a sudden blockade or airstrikes could prompt rapid repricing, historical gray-zone tactics have not triggered "invasion" resolutions.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วใช่
$7,897,969 ปริมาณ
$7,897,969 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
ใช่
$7,897,969 ปริมาณ
$7,897,969 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.2% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by the absence of any PLA mobilization indicators in the critical six-week window, despite routine military exercises in the Taiwan Strait through April 2026 that Beijing described as standard training. U.S. intelligence in March confirmed China lacks commitment to near-term invasion timelines, even for 2027, amid high amphibious assault barriers, economic interdependence, and U.S. alliances like recent Balikatan drills. Today's Trump-Xi summit in China addressed Taiwan status without escalation signals, further underscoring diplomatic stasis over military adventurism. While late-breaking events such as a sudden blockade or airstrikes could prompt rapid repricing, historical gray-zone tactics have not triggered "invasion" resolutions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,897,969วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.2% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by the absence of any PLA mobilization indicators in the critical six-week window, despite routine military exercises in the Taiwan Strait through April 2026 that Beijing described as standard training. U.S. intelligence in March confirmed China lacks commitment to near-term invasion timelines, even for 2027, amid high amphibious assault barriers, economic interdependence, and U.S. alliances like recent Balikatan drills. Today's Trump-Xi summit in China addressed Taiwan status without escalation signals, further underscoring diplomatic stasis over military adventurism. While late-breaking events such as a sudden blockade or airstrikes could prompt rapid repricing, historical gray-zone tactics have not triggered "invasion" resolutions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,897,969วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.2% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by the absence of any PLA mobilization indicators in the critical six-week window, despite routine military exercises in the Taiwan Strait through April 2026 that Beijing described as standard training. U.S. intelligence in March confirmed China lacks commitment to near-term invasion timelines, even for 2027, amid high amphibious assault barriers, economic interdependence, and U.S. alliances like recent Balikatan drills. Today's Trump-Xi summit in China addressed Taiwan status without escalation signals, further underscoring diplomatic stasis over military adventurism. While late-breaking events such as a sudden blockade or airstrikes could prompt rapid repricing, historical gray-zone tactics have not triggered "invasion" resolutions.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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