Michigan voters face an automatic ballot question on November 3, 2026, asking whether to convene a constitutional convention in 2027 to draft a full revision of the 1963 state constitution. Traders assign a 95.5% probability against approval, reflecting the measure’s history of consistent rejection in prior 16-year cycles since 1978. Primary drivers include the absence of organized campaigns or recent legislative or petition-driven momentum, plus widespread caution over the open-ended process, delegate elections, potential shifts in tax limits, redistricting, and other structural provisions. No major developments in the past several months have altered this baseline. Late shifts remain possible if polling reveals unexpected turnout changes or if specific policy debates intensify support for broad revision before election day.