The near-certain trader consensus against the Iranian regime falling by May 31 reflects the absence of any major internal or external developments in recent months capable of triggering rapid collapse. Iran's established governing structures, including security apparatus and institutional controls, have shown continuity amid ongoing regional tensions and economic constraints. Regime transitions of this scale typically require extended periods of sustained domestic upheaval or coordinated institutional breakdown, patterns not evident in current conditions. The two-week resolution window further reinforces the low probability of sudden change. Rare scenarios that could still shift outcomes include an unforeseen leadership crisis or widespread coordinated internal dissent emerging in the coming days, though such events lack supporting indicators at present.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วระบอบการปกครองอิหร่านจะล่มสลายภายในวันที่ 31 พฤษภาคมหรือไม่?
ระบอบการปกครองอิหร่านจะล่มสลายภายในวันที่ 31 พฤษภาคมหรือไม่?
ใช่
$20,254,386 ปริมาณ
$20,254,386 ปริมาณ
May 31, 2026
ใช่
$20,254,386 ปริมาณ
$20,254,386 ปริมาณ
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The near-certain trader consensus against the Iranian regime falling by May 31 reflects the absence of any major internal or external developments in recent months capable of triggering rapid collapse. Iran's established governing structures, including security apparatus and institutional controls, have shown continuity amid ongoing regional tensions and economic constraints. Regime transitions of this scale typically require extended periods of sustained domestic upheaval or coordinated institutional breakdown, patterns not evident in current conditions. The two-week resolution window further reinforces the low probability of sudden change. Rare scenarios that could still shift outcomes include an unforeseen leadership crisis or widespread coordinated internal dissent emerging in the coming days, though such events lack supporting indicators at present.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$20,254,386วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The near-certain trader consensus against the Iranian regime falling by May 31 reflects the absence of any major internal or external developments in recent months capable of triggering rapid collapse. Iran's established governing structures, including security apparatus and institutional controls, have shown continuity amid ongoing regional tensions and economic constraints. Regime transitions of this scale typically require extended periods of sustained domestic upheaval or coordinated institutional breakdown, patterns not evident in current conditions. The two-week resolution window further reinforces the low probability of sudden change. Rare scenarios that could still shift outcomes include an unforeseen leadership crisis or widespread coordinated internal dissent emerging in the coming days, though such events lack supporting indicators at present.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$20,254,406วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certain trader consensus against the Iranian regime falling by May 31 reflects the absence of any major internal or external developments in recent months capable of triggering rapid collapse. Iran's established governing structures, including security apparatus and institutional controls, have shown continuity amid ongoing regional tensions and economic constraints. Regime transitions of this scale typically require extended periods of sustained domestic upheaval or coordinated institutional breakdown, patterns not evident in current conditions. The two-week resolution window further reinforces the low probability of sudden change. Rare scenarios that could still shift outcomes include an unforeseen leadership crisis or widespread coordinated internal dissent emerging in the coming days, though such events lack supporting indicators at present.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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