**Trader consensus at 98.6% "No" for the Iranian regime falling by May 31 reflects its resilience following the 2026 war**, where U.S. and Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei yet prompted Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidation of military and political power without fractures. Recent Strait of Hormuz standoffs, U.S. naval escorts, and Trump's dismissal of truce plans on May 11 have heightened escalation risks but failed to spark internal collapse, as IRGC quashes dissent amid economic sanctions and ceasefire reconstitution efforts. While suppressed January protests and looming instability persist, no mass uprisings or defections have materialized; renewed full-scale invasion, IRGC infighting, or spontaneous nationwide unrest could still alter outcomes in the tight 18-day window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วระบอบการปกครองอิหร่านจะล่มสลายภายในวันที่ 31 พฤษภาคมหรือไม่?
ระบอบการปกครองอิหร่านจะล่มสลายภายในวันที่ 31 พฤษภาคมหรือไม่?
ใช่
$19,255,595 ปริมาณ
$19,255,595 ปริมาณ
May 31, 2026
ใช่
$19,255,595 ปริมาณ
$19,255,595 ปริมาณ
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Trader consensus at 98.6% "No" for the Iranian regime falling by May 31 reflects its resilience following the 2026 war**, where U.S. and Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei yet prompted Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidation of military and political power without fractures. Recent Strait of Hormuz standoffs, U.S. naval escorts, and Trump's dismissal of truce plans on May 11 have heightened escalation risks but failed to spark internal collapse, as IRGC quashes dissent amid economic sanctions and ceasefire reconstitution efforts. While suppressed January protests and looming instability persist, no mass uprisings or defections have materialized; renewed full-scale invasion, IRGC infighting, or spontaneous nationwide unrest could still alter outcomes in the tight 18-day window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$19,255,595วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Trader consensus at 98.6% "No" for the Iranian regime falling by May 31 reflects its resilience following the 2026 war**, where U.S. and Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei yet prompted Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidation of military and political power without fractures. Recent Strait of Hormuz standoffs, U.S. naval escorts, and Trump's dismissal of truce plans on May 11 have heightened escalation risks but failed to spark internal collapse, as IRGC quashes dissent amid economic sanctions and ceasefire reconstitution efforts. While suppressed January protests and looming instability persist, no mass uprisings or defections have materialized; renewed full-scale invasion, IRGC infighting, or spontaneous nationwide unrest could still alter outcomes in the tight 18-day window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$19,255,595วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus at 98.6% "No" for the Iranian regime falling by May 31 reflects its resilience following the 2026 war**, where U.S. and Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei yet prompted Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidation of military and political power without fractures. Recent Strait of Hormuz standoffs, U.S. naval escorts, and Trump's dismissal of truce plans on May 11 have heightened escalation risks but failed to spark internal collapse, as IRGC quashes dissent amid economic sanctions and ceasefire reconstitution efforts. While suppressed January protests and looming instability persist, no mass uprisings or defections have materialized; renewed full-scale invasion, IRGC infighting, or spontaneous nationwide unrest could still alter outcomes in the tight 18-day window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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