The US captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 military operation, establishing a recent precedent under narrow circumstances involving extensive intelligence, special forces planning, and direct ground action. Since then, no comparable operations against other sitting heads of state have been reported or signaled through official statements, deployments, or credible intelligence channels. Tensions with Iran culminated in the killing of its supreme leader earlier in the year rather than capture, while broader US foreign policy priorities have centered on diplomacy, sanctions enforcement, and regional negotiations without evidence of additional targeted apprehensions. The remaining months of 2026 offer limited window for such a complex undertaking to materialize, supporting trader consensus around the low probability of another qualifying capture by year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill the US capture another world leader in 2026?
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
6% โอกาส
$82,559 ปริมาณ
$82,559 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
6% โอกาส
$82,559 ปริมาณ
$82,559 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 military operation, establishing a recent precedent under narrow circumstances involving extensive intelligence, special forces planning, and direct ground action. Since then, no comparable operations against other sitting heads of state have been reported or signaled through official statements, deployments, or credible intelligence channels. Tensions with Iran culminated in the killing of its supreme leader earlier in the year rather than capture, while broader US foreign policy priorities have centered on diplomacy, sanctions enforcement, and regional negotiations without evidence of additional targeted apprehensions. The remaining months of 2026 offer limited window for such a complex undertaking to materialize, supporting trader consensus around the low probability of another qualifying capture by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$82,559วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 military operation, establishing a recent precedent under narrow circumstances involving extensive intelligence, special forces planning, and direct ground action. Since then, no comparable operations against other sitting heads of state have been reported or signaled through official statements, deployments, or credible intelligence channels. Tensions with Iran culminated in the killing of its supreme leader earlier in the year rather than capture, while broader US foreign policy priorities have centered on diplomacy, sanctions enforcement, and regional negotiations without evidence of additional targeted apprehensions. The remaining months of 2026 offer limited window for such a complex undertaking to materialize, supporting trader consensus around the low probability of another qualifying capture by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$82,559วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...The US captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 military operation, establishing a recent precedent under narrow circumstances involving extensive intelligence, special forces planning, and direct ground action. Since then, no comparable operations against other sitting heads of state have been reported or signaled through official statements, deployments, or credible intelligence channels. Tensions with Iran culminated in the killing of its supreme leader earlier in the year rather than capture, while broader US foreign policy priorities have centered on diplomacy, sanctions enforcement, and regional negotiations without evidence of additional targeted apprehensions. The remaining months of 2026 offer limited window for such a complex undertaking to materialize, supporting trader consensus around the low probability of another qualifying capture by year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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