The U.S. military's January 3 special forces raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro marked the first such ground operation against a head of state in decades, but no subsequent actions by U.S. personnel—including military, CIA, or federal law enforcement—have targeted another qualifying UN member state leader since. Trader consensus at 92.5% "No" reflects the absence of escalatory military signals amid diplomatic negotiations with Cuba over potential regime change for President Miguel Díaz-Canel, Bolivia's warrants for ex-leader Evo Morales without U.S. involvement, and Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei's February airstrike death rather than capture. With seven months remaining until year-end resolution, high-risk ground raids remain unlikely barring major invasions, terrorism escalations, or sanctions violations prompting direct intervention.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill the US capture another world leader in 2026?
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
$50,781 ปริมาณ
$50,781 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
$50,781 ปริมาณ
$50,781 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. military's January 3 special forces raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro marked the first such ground operation against a head of state in decades, but no subsequent actions by U.S. personnel—including military, CIA, or federal law enforcement—have targeted another qualifying UN member state leader since. Trader consensus at 92.5% "No" reflects the absence of escalatory military signals amid diplomatic negotiations with Cuba over potential regime change for President Miguel Díaz-Canel, Bolivia's warrants for ex-leader Evo Morales without U.S. involvement, and Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei's February airstrike death rather than capture. With seven months remaining until year-end resolution, high-risk ground raids remain unlikely barring major invasions, terrorism escalations, or sanctions violations prompting direct intervention.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$50,781วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. military's January 3 special forces raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro marked the first such ground operation against a head of state in decades, but no subsequent actions by U.S. personnel—including military, CIA, or federal law enforcement—have targeted another qualifying UN member state leader since. Trader consensus at 92.5% "No" reflects the absence of escalatory military signals amid diplomatic negotiations with Cuba over potential regime change for President Miguel Díaz-Canel, Bolivia's warrants for ex-leader Evo Morales without U.S. involvement, and Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei's February airstrike death rather than capture. With seven months remaining until year-end resolution, high-risk ground raids remain unlikely barring major invasions, terrorism escalations, or sanctions violations prompting direct intervention.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$50,781วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. military's January 3 special forces raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro marked the first such ground operation against a head of state in decades, but no subsequent actions by U.S. personnel—including military, CIA, or federal law enforcement—have targeted another qualifying UN member state leader since. Trader consensus at 92.5% "No" reflects the absence of escalatory military signals amid diplomatic negotiations with Cuba over potential regime change for President Miguel Díaz-Canel, Bolivia's warrants for ex-leader Evo Morales without U.S. involvement, and Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei's February airstrike death rather than capture. With seven months remaining until year-end resolution, high-risk ground raids remain unlikely barring major invasions, terrorism escalations, or sanctions violations prompting direct intervention.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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