Ongoing martial law, extended by Ukraine's parliament through October 31, 2026, and constitutional rules barring presidential elections during wartime remain the dominant factors anchoring trader consensus at 93.5% for Zelenskyy staying in office through year-end. The conflict with Russia shows no ceasefire or security guarantees that would allow a vote, while Zelenskyy has conditioned any ballot on allied support for safe polling and continues prioritizing military and diplomatic efforts, including recent sanctions advocacy. Domestic polls reflect sustained public backing for deferring elections, and no legislative or institutional challenges have emerged to force a transition. Late developments such as a sudden peace deal or major internal upheaval could still shift outcomes before December 31, though current conditions make such scenarios improbable in the remaining months.