Ukraine's ongoing martial law, most recently extended by the Verkhovna Rada through August 2026, continues to prohibit presidential elections under constitutional rules, reinforcing Volodymyr Zelenskyy's legitimacy as incumbent beyond his 2019 term expiration. Traders assign a 96.7 percent implied probability that he remains in office through June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of verified resignation signals, impeachment proceedings, or leadership transitions amid persistent Russian military actions. This near-consensus aligns with historical precedent where wartime restrictions and security requirements delay voting until after a ceasefire and six-month stabilization period. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a sudden health crisis, major diplomatic breakthrough enabling rushed polls, or unforeseen internal political upheaval, though current developments show no indicators of such changes before the resolution date.