Erdoğan's consolidated control over Turkish institutions and the ruling AKP coalition underpins the 94.5% trader consensus against his removal by December 31, 2026. His 2023 electoral mandate extends through 2028, with no scheduled presidential vote or constitutional trigger for early departure before then. Recent court actions weakening the main opposition CHP, including the May 2026 ouster of its leader, have further reduced near-term challenges while enabling potential maneuvering around term limits. Active diplomacy, including July 2026 meetings with U.S. officials, and the absence of credible health or legal developments forcing exit reinforce stability. Late-breaking events such as sudden incapacity, major defections, or successful snap-election pressure could still shift dynamics, though current evidence points to continuity through the resolution window.