**Forecast models from sources including GFS-based outlooks and European agencies indicate a high of 30–32°C for Madrid on September 20, 2026, under clear skies, light easterly or southeasterly winds, and negligible precipitation risk.** This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 31°C (51.5% implied probability) and 32°C (41.5%), as these outcomes match the consensus range from current runs. Key scientific drivers include a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and strong diurnal heating, combined with above-average seasonal soil moisture deficits that enhance daytime temperature amplification. Madrid’s elevation (~655 m) and urban heat island effects further support peaks in this narrow band, consistent with recent September 2026 observations where daily highs have frequently exceeded the 1991–2020 average of ~25.5°C. Model agreement is high for minimal cloud cover and stable steering flow, limiting upside or downside surprises. The 30°C outcome (9.5%) remains plausible if boundary-layer mixing or slight timing shifts in maximum heating occur, while probabilities below 29°C or above 33°C stay minimal given the absence of frontal systems or anomalous advection. With resolution imminent, traders are monitoring the final AEMET station readings and any last-hour model adjustments for confirmation.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHighest temperature in Madrid on September 20?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 20?
31°C 52%
32°C 39%
30°C 10%
29°C <1%
BAGO
$15,863 Vol.
BAGO
$15,863 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
10%
31°C
52%
32°C
39%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 52%
32°C 39%
30°C 10%
29°C <1%
BAGO
$15,863 Vol.
BAGO
$15,863 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
25°C or below
$181 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,350 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,461 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$135 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$293 Vol.
1%
30°C
$2,072 Vol.
10%
31°C
$4,651 Vol.
52%
32°C
$4,033 Vol.
39%
33°C
$471 Vol.
1%
34°C
$135 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$1,081 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources including GFS-based outlooks and European agencies indicate a high of 30–32°C for Madrid on September 20, 2026, under clear skies, light easterly or southeasterly winds, and negligible precipitation risk.** This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 31°C (51.5% implied probability) and 32°C (41.5%), as these outcomes match the consensus range from current runs.
Key scientific drivers include a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and strong diurnal heating, combined with above-average seasonal soil moisture deficits that enhance daytime temperature amplification. Madrid’s elevation (~655 m) and urban heat island effects further support peaks in this narrow band, consistent with recent September 2026 observations where daily highs have frequently exceeded the 1991–2020 average of ~25.5°C. Model agreement is high for minimal cloud cover and stable steering flow, limiting upside or downside surprises.
The 30°C outcome (9.5%) remains plausible if boundary-layer mixing or slight timing shifts in maximum heating occur, while probabilities below 29°C or above 33°C stay minimal given the absence of frontal systems or anomalous advection. With resolution imminent, traders are monitoring the final AEMET station readings and any last-hour model adjustments for confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$15,863Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 20, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources including GFS-based outlooks and European agencies indicate a high of 30–32°C for Madrid on September 20, 2026, under clear skies, light easterly or southeasterly winds, and negligible precipitation risk.** This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 31°C (51.5% implied probability) and 32°C (41.5%), as these outcomes match the consensus range from current runs.
Key scientific drivers include a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and strong diurnal heating, combined with above-average seasonal soil moisture deficits that enhance daytime temperature amplification. Madrid’s elevation (~655 m) and urban heat island effects further support peaks in this narrow band, consistent with recent September 2026 observations where daily highs have frequently exceeded the 1991–2020 average of ~25.5°C. Model agreement is high for minimal cloud cover and stable steering flow, limiting upside or downside surprises.
The 30°C outcome (9.5%) remains plausible if boundary-layer mixing or slight timing shifts in maximum heating occur, while probabilities below 29°C or above 33°C stay minimal given the absence of frontal systems or anomalous advection. With resolution imminent, traders are monitoring the final AEMET station readings and any last-hour model adjustments for confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,863Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 20, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from sources including GFS-based outlooks and European agencies indicate a high of 30–32°C for Madrid on September 20, 2026, under clear skies, light easterly or southeasterly winds, and negligible precipitation risk.** This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 31°C (51.5% implied probability) and 32°C (41.5%), as these outcomes match the consensus range from current runs. Key scientific drivers include a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and strong diurnal heating, combined with above-average seasonal soil moisture deficits that enhance daytime temperature amplification. Madrid’s elevation (~655 m) and urban heat island effects further support peaks in this narrow band, consistent with recent September 2026 observations where daily highs have frequently exceeded the 1991–2020 average of ~25.5°C. Model agreement is high for minimal cloud cover and stable steering flow, limiting upside or downside surprises. The 30°C outcome (9.5%) remains plausible if boundary-layer mixing or slight timing shifts in maximum heating occur, while probabilities below 29°C or above 33°C stay minimal given the absence of frontal systems or anomalous advection. With resolution imminent, traders are monitoring the final AEMET station readings and any last-hour model adjustments for confirmation.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong