Elevated inflation risks from sustained high energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions have anchored trader sentiment toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for all of 2026, with market-implied odds at 70.9%. The March CPI print at 3.3% and resilient labor market conditions have prompted major brokerages including BofA and Goldman Sachs to defer any easing until late 2026 or 2027, aligning with CME FedWatch futures pricing a roughly 71% chance the FOMC holds the 3.50–3.75% target range steady through year-end. Recent FOMC communications emphasizing data dependence and balanced risks reinforce this cautious stance, though further cooling in core inflation or labor-market softening could still shift the rate path.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update0 (0 bps) 70.2%
1 (25 bps) 16%
2 (50 bps) 7%
3 (75 bps) 2.7%
$26,873,347 Vol.
$26,873,347 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
70%
1 (25 bps)
16%
2 (50 bps)
7%
3 (75 bps)
3%
4 (100 bps)
2%
5 (125 bps)
1%
6 (150 bps)
1%
7 (175 bps)
<1%
8 (200 bps)
<1%
9 (225 bps)
<1%
10 (250 bps)
<1%
11 (275 bps)
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
1%
0 (0 bps) 70.2%
1 (25 bps) 16%
2 (50 bps) 7%
3 (75 bps) 2.7%
$26,873,347 Vol.
$26,873,347 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$4,185,726 Vol.
70%
1 (25 bps)
$1,244,470 Vol.
16%
2 (50 bps)
$1,203,687 Vol.
7%
3 (75 bps)
$1,113,699 Vol.
3%
4 (100 bps)
$1,194,562 Vol.
2%
5 (125 bps)
$1,415,585 Vol.
1%
6 (150 bps)
$2,484,312 Vol.
1%
7 (175 bps)
$1,322,083 Vol.
<1%
8 (200 bps)
$1,726,939 Vol.
<1%
9 (225 bps)
$2,449,424 Vol.
<1%
10 (250 bps)
$3,115,569 Vol.
<1%
11 (275 bps)
$3,266,343 Vol.
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
$2,151,069 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation risks from sustained high energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions have anchored trader sentiment toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for all of 2026, with market-implied odds at 70.9%. The March CPI print at 3.3% and resilient labor market conditions have prompted major brokerages including BofA and Goldman Sachs to defer any easing until late 2026 or 2027, aligning with CME FedWatch futures pricing a roughly 71% chance the FOMC holds the 3.50–3.75% target range steady through year-end. Recent FOMC communications emphasizing data dependence and balanced risks reinforce this cautious stance, though further cooling in core inflation or labor-market softening could still shift the rate path.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$26,873,347Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation risks from sustained high energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions have anchored trader sentiment toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for all of 2026, with market-implied odds at 70.9%. The March CPI print at 3.3% and resilient labor market conditions have prompted major brokerages including BofA and Goldman Sachs to defer any easing until late 2026 or 2027, aligning with CME FedWatch futures pricing a roughly 71% chance the FOMC holds the 3.50–3.75% target range steady through year-end. Recent FOMC communications emphasizing data dependence and balanced risks reinforce this cautious stance, though further cooling in core inflation or labor-market softening could still shift the rate path.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$26,873,347Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated inflation risks from sustained high energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions have anchored trader sentiment toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts for all of 2026, with market-implied odds at 70.9%. The March CPI print at 3.3% and resilient labor market conditions have prompted major brokerages including BofA and Goldman Sachs to defer any easing until late 2026 or 2027, aligning with CME FedWatch futures pricing a roughly 71% chance the FOMC holds the 3.50–3.75% target range steady through year-end. Recent FOMC communications emphasizing data dependence and balanced risks reinforce this cautious stance, though further cooling in core inflation or labor-market softening could still shift the rate path.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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