Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions have driven market-implied odds to 70.3% for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. With the target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% after the April FOMC meeting, resilient labor market data and cautious central bank communications have reinforced trader consensus that the policy rate will remain on hold through year-end. Brokerage forecasts have shifted sharply later, with several now projecting the first easing only in 2027. Key upcoming catalysts include May and June inflation releases plus the June FOMC dot plot, which could further clarify whether any basis-point adjustments materialize amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update0 (0 bps) 70.2%
1 (25 bps) 16%
2 (50 bps) 7%
3 (75 bps) 2.8%
$26,964,071 Vol.
$26,964,071 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
70%
1 (25 bps)
16%
2 (50 bps)
7%
3 (75 bps)
3%
4 (100 bps)
2%
5 (125 bps)
1%
6 (150 bps)
1%
7 (175 bps)
<1%
8 (200 bps)
<1%
9 (225 bps)
<1%
10 (250 bps)
<1%
11 (275 bps)
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
1%
0 (0 bps) 70.2%
1 (25 bps) 16%
2 (50 bps) 7%
3 (75 bps) 2.8%
$26,964,071 Vol.
$26,964,071 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$4,190,333 Vol.
70%
1 (25 bps)
$1,245,242 Vol.
16%
2 (50 bps)
$1,204,676 Vol.
7%
3 (75 bps)
$1,114,226 Vol.
3%
4 (100 bps)
$1,198,315 Vol.
2%
5 (125 bps)
$1,420,198 Vol.
1%
6 (150 bps)
$2,497,064 Vol.
1%
7 (175 bps)
$1,327,047 Vol.
<1%
8 (200 bps)
$1,737,979 Vol.
<1%
9 (225 bps)
$2,457,054 Vol.
<1%
10 (250 bps)
$3,126,300 Vol.
<1%
11 (275 bps)
$3,277,080 Vol.
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
$2,169,000 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions have driven market-implied odds to 70.3% for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. With the target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% after the April FOMC meeting, resilient labor market data and cautious central bank communications have reinforced trader consensus that the policy rate will remain on hold through year-end. Brokerage forecasts have shifted sharply later, with several now projecting the first easing only in 2027. Key upcoming catalysts include May and June inflation releases plus the June FOMC dot plot, which could further clarify whether any basis-point adjustments materialize amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$26,964,071Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions have driven market-implied odds to 70.3% for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. With the target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% after the April FOMC meeting, resilient labor market data and cautious central bank communications have reinforced trader consensus that the policy rate will remain on hold through year-end. Brokerage forecasts have shifted sharply later, with several now projecting the first easing only in 2027. Key upcoming catalysts include May and June inflation releases plus the June FOMC dot plot, which could further clarify whether any basis-point adjustments materialize amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$26,964,071Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions have driven market-implied odds to 70.3% for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. With the target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% after the April FOMC meeting, resilient labor market data and cautious central bank communications have reinforced trader consensus that the policy rate will remain on hold through year-end. Brokerage forecasts have shifted sharply later, with several now projecting the first easing only in 2027. Key upcoming catalysts include May and June inflation releases plus the June FOMC dot plot, which could further clarify whether any basis-point adjustments materialize amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong