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icon for Gaano karaming mga Fed rate cuts sa 2026?
Ekonomiya·Negosyo

Gaano karaming mga Fed rate cuts sa 2026?

icon for Gaano karaming mga Fed rate cuts sa 2026?
Ekonomiya·Negosyo

Gaano karaming mga Fed rate cuts sa 2026?

0 (0 bps) 70.2%

1 (25 bps) 16%

2 (50 bps) 7%

3 (75 bps) 2.6%

Polymarket

$26,962,683 Vol.

0 (0 bps) 70.2%

1 (25 bps) 16%

2 (50 bps) 7%

3 (75 bps) 2.6%

Polymarket

$26,962,683 Vol.

0 (0 bps)

$4,190,221 Vol.

70%

1 (25 bps)

$1,245,242 Vol.

16%

2 (50 bps)

$1,204,676 Vol.

7%

3 (75 bps)

$1,114,221 Vol.

3%

4 (100 bps)

$1,197,957 Vol.

1%

5 (125 bps)

$1,420,154 Vol.

1%

6 (150 bps)

$2,496,909 Vol.

1%

7 (175 bps)

$1,326,974 Vol.

<1%

8 (200 bps)

$1,737,503 Vol.

<1%

9 (225 bps)

$2,457,050 Vol.

<1%

10 (250 bps)

$3,126,177 Vol.

<1%

11 (275 bps)

$3,276,985 Vol.

<1%

12+ (300+ bps)

$2,168,835 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict and higher energy prices have driven the strong market-implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, now at 70.3 percent according to trader positioning. Recent data show headline CPI rising to 3.3 percent in March amid elevated oil costs, while the labor market remains resilient with unemployment steady at 4.3 percent and solid job gains. Brokerage forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs have shifted toward holding rates at the current 3.50–3.75 percent target range through year-end, with any easing now pushed into 2027. This consensus reflects caution around sticky core inflation near 2.6–3.0 percent and limited scope for monetary easing given stable economic conditions. Key upcoming catalysts include the next FOMC meetings and fresh CPI releases that could further shape the implied rate path.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$26,962,683
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict and higher energy prices have driven the strong market-implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, now at 70.3 percent according to trader positioning. Recent data show headline CPI rising to 3.3 percent in March amid elevated oil costs, while the labor market remains resilient with unemployment steady at 4.3 percent and solid job gains. Brokerage forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs have shifted toward holding rates at the current 3.50–3.75 percent target range through year-end, with any easing now pushed into 2027. This consensus reflects caution around sticky core inflation near 2.6–3.0 percent and limited scope for monetary easing given stable economic conditions. Key upcoming catalysts include the next FOMC meetings and fresh CPI releases that could further shape the implied rate path.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$26,962,683
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Gaano karaming mga Fed rate cuts sa 2026?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 13 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "0 (0 bps)" sa 70%, sinusundan ng "1 (25 bps)" sa 16%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 70¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 70% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Gaano karaming mga Fed rate cuts sa 2026?" ay naka-generate ng $27 million sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Sep 29, 2025. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Gaano karaming mga Fed rate cuts sa 2026?," i-browse ang 13 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Gaano karaming mga Fed rate cuts sa 2026?" ay "0 (0 bps)" sa 70%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 70% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "1 (25 bps)" sa 16%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Gaano karaming mga Fed rate cuts sa 2026?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.