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Politika·Immigration

How many people will Trump deport in 2026?

icon for How many people will Trump deport in 2026?
Politika·Immigration

How many people will Trump deport in 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

400-500k 78%

500-600k 11.5%

300-400k 8%

<200k 1.9%

Polymarket

$124,790 Vol.

400-500k 78%

500-600k 11.5%

300-400k 8%

<200k 1.9%

Polymarket

$124,790 Vol.

<200k

$10,579 Vol.

2%

200-300k

$9,854 Vol.

1%

300-400k

$15,093 Vol.

8%

400-500k

$8,350 Vol.

78%

500-600k

$6,568 Vol.

11%

600-700k

$5,757 Vol.

2%

700-800k

$41,928 Vol.

1%

800-900k

$12,872 Vol.

1%

900k-1m

$6,619 Vol.

1%

>1m

$7,168 Vol.

1%

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.**Trader consensus on 400-500k deportations in 2026 reflects sustained high interior enforcement alongside persistent logistical and legal constraints.** Record ICE arrests reached new monthly highs in summer 2026 (over 50,000 in July and August), driven by expanded detention capacity and operations targeting removable noncitizens, yet daily removal rates have held steady near 1,200 amid limits on flights, country acceptance, and processing. Fiscal year 2026 ICE removals stood at roughly 356,000 through mid-July, exceeding the prior year’s pace and positioning the calendar year near or above 400,000 when including CBP border actions. A September 19 federal appeals court ruling blocking rapid third-country deportations without notice or safety reviews adds near-term friction, while diplomatic and capacity bottlenecks continue to cap scaling. These factors align market pricing with enforcement momentum tempered by operational realities rather than a sharp acceleration toward 600k-plus.

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.

The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$124,790
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 11:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.**Trader consensus on 400-500k deportations in 2026 reflects sustained high interior enforcement alongside persistent logistical and legal constraints.** Record ICE arrests reached new monthly highs in summer 2026 (over 50,000 in July and August), driven by expanded detention capacity and operations targeting removable noncitizens, yet daily removal rates have held steady near 1,200 amid limits on flights, country acceptance, and processing. Fiscal year 2026 ICE removals stood at roughly 356,000 through mid-July, exceeding the prior year’s pace and positioning the calendar year near or above 400,000 when including CBP border actions. A September 19 federal appeals court ruling blocking rapid third-country deportations without notice or safety reviews adds near-term friction, while diplomatic and capacity bottlenecks continue to cap scaling. These factors align market pricing with enforcement momentum tempered by operational realities rather than a sharp acceleration toward 600k-plus.

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.

The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$124,790
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 11:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "How many people will Trump deport in 2026?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 10 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "400-500k" sa 78%, sinusundan ng "500-600k" sa 11%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 78¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 78% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "How many people will Trump deport in 2026?" ay naka-generate ng $124.8K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Nov 5, 2025. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "How many people will Trump deport in 2026?," i-browse ang 10 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "How many people will Trump deport in 2026?" ay "400-500k" sa 78%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 78% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "500-600k" sa 11%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "How many people will Trump deport in 2026?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.