The Trump administration’s stated goal of scaling ICE removals toward one million annually in fiscal 2026 has set the baseline for trader expectations, yet recent enforcement data show arrests averaging roughly 1,000–1,300 per day and interior deportations tracking well below that target. Expanded detention capacity and hiring of additional agents have boosted operational reach since late 2025, but logistical limits, court backlogs, and reduced border encounters have tempered the pace. With the 400,000–500,000 and 300,000–400,000 brackets nearly tied, market pricing reflects uncertainty over whether stepped-up worksite raids and state cooperation will lift totals into the higher band or whether resource constraints and legal challenges will keep annual removals closer to last year’s levels. Upcoming budget implementation and any mid-year policy adjustments remain the clearest near-term catalysts.