Iran’s ongoing conflict with the US and regional actors has centered on maritime disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, where IRGC forces have conducted repeated missile and projectile strikes on commercial tankers and cargo vessels since early 2026, including incidents in July that prompted US retaliatory strikes and contributed to a near-total shipping freeze. Iran-backed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, such as the August 12 strike on the Egyptian-owned Tihamah that killed crew members, extend this pressure on alternative routes. Ceasefire talks have stalled amid Iranian demands for Hormuz access tied to specific US concessions, sustaining elevated threat levels and prompting naval warnings. These patterns of direct and proxy kinetic actions on shipping, alongside diplomatic impasse, shape trader assessments of further incidents through late August.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$150,834 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
August 15
19%
August 16
39%
August 17
17%
August 18
22%
August 19
14%
August 20
14%
August 21
14%
August 22
10%
August 23
16%
August 24
14%
August 25
34%
August 26
29%
August 27
32%
August 28
10%
August 29
11%
August 30
12%
August 31
11%
$150,834 Vol.
August 15
$6,659 Vol.
19%
August 16
$1,908 Vol.
39%
August 17
$596 Vol.
17%
August 18
$459 Vol.
22%
August 19
$3,332 Vol.
14%
August 20
$695 Vol.
14%
August 21
$1,141 Vol.
14%
August 22
$456 Vol.
10%
August 23
$2,938 Vol.
16%
August 24
$6,258 Vol.
14%
August 25
$90 Vol.
34%
August 26
$760 Vol.
29%
August 27
$342 Vol.
32%
August 28
$725 Vol.
10%
August 29
$1,384 Vol.
11%
August 30
$233 Vol.
12%
August 31
$988 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran’s ongoing conflict with the US and regional actors has centered on maritime disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, where IRGC forces have conducted repeated missile and projectile strikes on commercial tankers and cargo vessels since early 2026, including incidents in July that prompted US retaliatory strikes and contributed to a near-total shipping freeze. Iran-backed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, such as the August 12 strike on the Egyptian-owned Tihamah that killed crew members, extend this pressure on alternative routes. Ceasefire talks have stalled amid Iranian demands for Hormuz access tied to specific US concessions, sustaining elevated threat levels and prompting naval warnings. These patterns of direct and proxy kinetic actions on shipping, alongside diplomatic impasse, shape trader assessments of further incidents through late August.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ET
Volume
$150,834Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran’s ongoing conflict with the US and regional actors has centered on maritime disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, where IRGC forces have conducted repeated missile and projectile strikes on commercial tankers and cargo vessels since early 2026, including incidents in July that prompted US retaliatory strikes and contributed to a near-total shipping freeze. Iran-backed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, such as the August 12 strike on the Egyptian-owned Tihamah that killed crew members, extend this pressure on alternative routes. Ceasefire talks have stalled amid Iranian demands for Hormuz access tied to specific US concessions, sustaining elevated threat levels and prompting naval warnings. These patterns of direct and proxy kinetic actions on shipping, alongside diplomatic impasse, shape trader assessments of further incidents through late August.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$150,834Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s ongoing conflict with the US and regional actors has centered on maritime disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, where IRGC forces have conducted repeated missile and projectile strikes on commercial tankers and cargo vessels since early 2026, including incidents in July that prompted US retaliatory strikes and contributed to a near-total shipping freeze. Iran-backed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, such as the August 12 strike on the Egyptian-owned Tihamah that killed crew members, extend this pressure on alternative routes. Ceasefire talks have stalled amid Iranian demands for Hormuz access tied to specific US concessions, sustaining elevated threat levels and prompting naval warnings. These patterns of direct and proxy kinetic actions on shipping, alongside diplomatic impasse, shape trader assessments of further incidents through late August.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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