Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party led by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, faces a fragmented electoral field ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026, legislative vote. Recent polls after party lists closed show its support hovering near or below the 3.25% threshold required for Knesset entry, with results fluctuating between roughly 2% and low-single-digit projections that translate to four seats or fewer. Traders assign the highest probability to outcomes under 2.5% because the party draws primarily from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit voters, prompting warnings from Netanyahu and consolidation calls from Smotrich that could suppress its share. Mixed September surveys, including those showing it crossing or falling short, underscore sensitivity to turnout, undecided voters, and right-wing vote splitting.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update2.5-3.25% 35%
3.25-4% 32%
5%+ 31%
<2.5% 28%
BAGO
BAGO
Nov 30, 2026
<2.5%
49%
2.5-3.25%
35%
3.25-4%
32%
4-5%
37%
5%+
31%
2.5-3.25% 35%
3.25-4% 32%
5%+ 31%
<2.5% 28%
BAGO
BAGO
Nov 30, 2026
<2.5%
$20 Vol.
49%
2.5-3.25%
$0 Vol.
35%
3.25-4%
$0 Vol.
32%
4-5%
$13 Vol.
37%
5%+
$32 Vol.
31%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party led by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, faces a fragmented electoral field ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026, legislative vote. Recent polls after party lists closed show its support hovering near or below the 3.25% threshold required for Knesset entry, with results fluctuating between roughly 2% and low-single-digit projections that translate to four seats or fewer. Traders assign the highest probability to outcomes under 2.5% because the party draws primarily from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit voters, prompting warnings from Netanyahu and consolidation calls from Smotrich that could suppress its share. Mixed September surveys, including those showing it crossing or falling short, underscore sensitivity to turnout, undecided voters, and right-wing vote splitting.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Volume
$66Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party led by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, faces a fragmented electoral field ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026, legislative vote. Recent polls after party lists closed show its support hovering near or below the 3.25% threshold required for Knesset entry, with results fluctuating between roughly 2% and low-single-digit projections that translate to four seats or fewer. Traders assign the highest probability to outcomes under 2.5% because the party draws primarily from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit voters, prompting warnings from Netanyahu and consolidation calls from Smotrich that could suppress its share. Mixed September surveys, including those showing it crossing or falling short, underscore sensitivity to turnout, undecided voters, and right-wing vote splitting.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$66Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party led by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, faces a fragmented electoral field ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026, legislative vote. Recent polls after party lists closed show its support hovering near or below the 3.25% threshold required for Knesset entry, with results fluctuating between roughly 2% and low-single-digit projections that translate to four seats or fewer. Traders assign the highest probability to outcomes under 2.5% because the party draws primarily from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit voters, prompting warnings from Netanyahu and consolidation calls from Smotrich that could suppress its share. Mixed September surveys, including those showing it crossing or falling short, underscore sensitivity to turnout, undecided voters, and right-wing vote splitting.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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