Trader sentiment on Japan’s Q1 2026 real GDP growth centers on the Cabinet Office preliminary release scheduled for May 19, where consensus forecasts cluster around 0.4 percent year-over-year. Resilient exports, which posted an 11.7 percent year-over-year gain in March, together with steady private consumption and capital investment have anchored expectations in the 0.3–0.5 percent band now carrying 52.3 percent implied probability. Elevated Tankan and PMI readings through March reinforced moderate expansion, while the limited immediate drag from higher energy costs and yen movements has kept downside risks contained. The closely contested 0.6–0.8 percent outcome at 41.7 percent reflects uncertainty over whether final data revisions will exceed the current median estimate of roughly 0.5 percent quarter-over-quarter, or 1.7 percent annualized.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update0.3–0.5% 45.8%
0.6–0.8% 7.4%
0.0–0.2% 6.6%
-0.3– -0.1% 4.5%
BAGO
BAGO
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
5%
0.0–0.2%
7%
0.3–0.5%
46%
0.6–0.8%
7%
0.9–1.1%
28%
1.2%+
2%
0.3–0.5% 45.8%
0.6–0.8% 7.4%
0.0–0.2% 6.6%
-0.3– -0.1% 4.5%
BAGO
BAGO
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
$1,277 Vol.
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
$1,207 Vol.
5%
0.0–0.2%
$1,317 Vol.
7%
0.3–0.5%
$871 Vol.
46%
0.6–0.8%
$519 Vol.
7%
0.9–1.1%
$752 Vol.
28%
1.2%+
$3,335 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTrader sentiment on Japan’s Q1 2026 real GDP growth centers on the Cabinet Office preliminary release scheduled for May 19, where consensus forecasts cluster around 0.4 percent year-over-year. Resilient exports, which posted an 11.7 percent year-over-year gain in March, together with steady private consumption and capital investment have anchored expectations in the 0.3–0.5 percent band now carrying 52.3 percent implied probability. Elevated Tankan and PMI readings through March reinforced moderate expansion, while the limited immediate drag from higher energy costs and yen movements has kept downside risks contained. The closely contested 0.6–0.8 percent outcome at 41.7 percent reflects uncertainty over whether final data revisions will exceed the current median estimate of roughly 0.5 percent quarter-over-quarter, or 1.7 percent annualized.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Binuksan ang Market: Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$9,279Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 19, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTrader sentiment on Japan’s Q1 2026 real GDP growth centers on the Cabinet Office preliminary release scheduled for May 19, where consensus forecasts cluster around 0.4 percent year-over-year. Resilient exports, which posted an 11.7 percent year-over-year gain in March, together with steady private consumption and capital investment have anchored expectations in the 0.3–0.5 percent band now carrying 52.3 percent implied probability. Elevated Tankan and PMI readings through March reinforced moderate expansion, while the limited immediate drag from higher energy costs and yen movements has kept downside risks contained. The closely contested 0.6–0.8 percent outcome at 41.7 percent reflects uncertainty over whether final data revisions will exceed the current median estimate of roughly 0.5 percent quarter-over-quarter, or 1.7 percent annualized.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$9,279Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 19, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Japan’s Q1 2026 real GDP growth centers on the Cabinet Office preliminary release scheduled for May 19, where consensus forecasts cluster around 0.4 percent year-over-year. Resilient exports, which posted an 11.7 percent year-over-year gain in March, together with steady private consumption and capital investment have anchored expectations in the 0.3–0.5 percent band now carrying 52.3 percent implied probability. Elevated Tankan and PMI readings through March reinforced moderate expansion, while the limited immediate drag from higher energy costs and yen movements has kept downside risks contained. The closely contested 0.6–0.8 percent outcome at 41.7 percent reflects uncertainty over whether final data revisions will exceed the current median estimate of roughly 0.5 percent quarter-over-quarter, or 1.7 percent annualized.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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