**The market heavily favors fewer than five posts (88% implied probability) from the primary Khamenei.ir account during August 11–18, 2026, because official activity has followed a sparse, archival pattern since Ali Khamenei’s death in early 2026.** The account now issues occasional historical quotes or commemorative statements rather than frequent original messaging from the late leader. Mojtaba Khamenei, the current Supreme Leader, maintains a separate account that releases targeted official announcements on appointments or policy, but these remain infrequent and not tied to daily events. No major diplomatic, military, or domestic developments in the past week have prompted additional output, consistent with the reduced public-facing tempo observed since the 2025 conflict and leadership transition. Traders price in this established rhythm, with only modest probability assigned to a modest uptick (5–9 posts at 11.5%). Higher bins reflect the low likelihood of sudden escalation or new content volume within the narrow resolution window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateKhamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026?
Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026?
<5 88%
5-9 12%
25-29 <1%
30-34 <1%
$15,439 Vol.
$15,439 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
<5
88%
5-9
12%
10-14
<1%
15-19
<1%
20-24
<1%
25-29
1%
30-34
1%
35-39
<1%
40-44
<1%
45-49
<1%
50-54
<1%
55-59
<1%
60+
<1%
<5 88%
5-9 12%
25-29 <1%
30-34 <1%
$15,439 Vol.
$15,439 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
<5
$4,448 Vol.
88%
5-9
$2,532 Vol.
12%
10-14
$1,162 Vol.
<1%
15-19
$982 Vol.
<1%
20-24
$991 Vol.
<1%
25-29
$1,459 Vol.
1%
30-34
$1,383 Vol.
1%
35-39
$440 Vol.
<1%
40-44
$321 Vol.
<1%
45-49
$358 Vol.
<1%
50-54
$406 Vol.
<1%
55-59
$406 Vol.
<1%
60+
$551 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 11, 12:00 PM ET and August 18, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**The market heavily favors fewer than five posts (88% implied probability) from the primary Khamenei.ir account during August 11–18, 2026, because official activity has followed a sparse, archival pattern since Ali Khamenei’s death in early 2026.**
The account now issues occasional historical quotes or commemorative statements rather than frequent original messaging from the late leader. Mojtaba Khamenei, the current Supreme Leader, maintains a separate account that releases targeted official announcements on appointments or policy, but these remain infrequent and not tied to daily events. No major diplomatic, military, or domestic developments in the past week have prompted additional output, consistent with the reduced public-facing tempo observed since the 2025 conflict and leadership transition. Traders price in this established rhythm, with only modest probability assigned to a modest uptick (5–9 posts at 11.5%). Higher bins reflect the low likelihood of sudden escalation or new content volume within the narrow resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 11, 12:00 PM ET and August 18, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$15,439Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 18, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 11, 12:00 PM ET and August 18, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**The market heavily favors fewer than five posts (88% implied probability) from the primary Khamenei.ir account during August 11–18, 2026, because official activity has followed a sparse, archival pattern since Ali Khamenei’s death in early 2026.**
The account now issues occasional historical quotes or commemorative statements rather than frequent original messaging from the late leader. Mojtaba Khamenei, the current Supreme Leader, maintains a separate account that releases targeted official announcements on appointments or policy, but these remain infrequent and not tied to daily events. No major diplomatic, military, or domestic developments in the past week have prompted additional output, consistent with the reduced public-facing tempo observed since the 2025 conflict and leadership transition. Traders price in this established rhythm, with only modest probability assigned to a modest uptick (5–9 posts at 11.5%). Higher bins reflect the low likelihood of sudden escalation or new content volume within the narrow resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 11, 12:00 PM ET and August 18, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$15,439Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 18, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The market heavily favors fewer than five posts (88% implied probability) from the primary Khamenei.ir account during August 11–18, 2026, because official activity has followed a sparse, archival pattern since Ali Khamenei’s death in early 2026.** The account now issues occasional historical quotes or commemorative statements rather than frequent original messaging from the late leader. Mojtaba Khamenei, the current Supreme Leader, maintains a separate account that releases targeted official announcements on appointments or policy, but these remain infrequent and not tied to daily events. No major diplomatic, military, or domestic developments in the past week have prompted additional output, consistent with the reduced public-facing tempo observed since the 2025 conflict and leadership transition. Traders price in this established rhythm, with only modest probability assigned to a modest uptick (5–9 posts at 11.5%). Higher bins reflect the low likelihood of sudden escalation or new content volume within the narrow resolution window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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