Amir Ohana leads trader consensus in the Likud primary at 77.5% amid voting by roughly 140,000 party members on August 17, 2026, for positions on the Knesset slate ahead of the October national election. As Knesset Speaker and a longtime Netanyahu ally, Ohana benefits from consistent high placements in internal surveys, broad establishment backing, and the party's recent rule changes that reserved several top slots for the leadership while leaving the primary to determine the rest. Other contenders such as Tally Gotliv, Yariv Levin, and Eli Cohen trail with single-digit implied probabilities, reflecting lower projected support among eligible voters despite pockets of base popularity. Netanyahu's influence over the process and ongoing internal disputes over district rules and reserved places have further consolidated expectations around established loyalists rather than challengers.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateAmir Ohana 78%
Tally Gotliv 5.8%
Yariv Levin 5.8%
Eli Cohen 5.1%
$61,070 Vol.
$61,070 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
Amir Ohana
78%
Tally Gotliv
6%
Yariv Levin
6%
Eli Cohen
5%
No Primary by Knesset Election
4%
Boaz Bismuth
1%
Miri Regev
1%
Shlomo Karhi
1%
Almog Cohen
1%
Moshe Saada
1%
David Amsalem
1%
Amichai Chikli
1%
Israel Katz
<1%
Nir Barkat
<1%
Yoav Kisch
<1%
Miki Zohar
<1%
David Bitan
<1%
Amir Ohana 78%
Tally Gotliv 5.8%
Yariv Levin 5.8%
Eli Cohen 5.1%
$61,070 Vol.
$61,070 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
Amir Ohana
$19,373 Vol.
78%
Tally Gotliv
$13,301 Vol.
6%
Yariv Levin
$3,909 Vol.
6%
Eli Cohen
$1,556 Vol.
5%
No Primary by Knesset Election
$9,710 Vol.
4%
Boaz Bismuth
$1,287 Vol.
1%
Miri Regev
$655 Vol.
1%
Shlomo Karhi
$1,016 Vol.
1%
Almog Cohen
$909 Vol.
1%
Moshe Saada
$882 Vol.
1%
David Amsalem
$832 Vol.
1%
Amichai Chikli
$910 Vol.
1%
Israel Katz
$2,245 Vol.
<1%
Nir Barkat
$2,180 Vol.
<1%
Yoav Kisch
$841 Vol.
<1%
Miki Zohar
$667 Vol.
<1%
David Bitan
$800 Vol.
<1%
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.Amir Ohana leads trader consensus in the Likud primary at 77.5% amid voting by roughly 140,000 party members on August 17, 2026, for positions on the Knesset slate ahead of the October national election. As Knesset Speaker and a longtime Netanyahu ally, Ohana benefits from consistent high placements in internal surveys, broad establishment backing, and the party's recent rule changes that reserved several top slots for the leadership while leaving the primary to determine the rest. Other contenders such as Tally Gotliv, Yariv Levin, and Eli Cohen trail with single-digit implied probabilities, reflecting lower projected support among eligible voters despite pockets of base popularity. Netanyahu's influence over the process and ongoing internal disputes over district rules and reserved places have further consolidated expectations around established loyalists rather than challengers.
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 21, 2026, 7:34 PM ET
Volume
$61,070Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 26, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 21, 2026, 7:34 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.Amir Ohana leads trader consensus in the Likud primary at 77.5% amid voting by roughly 140,000 party members on August 17, 2026, for positions on the Knesset slate ahead of the October national election. As Knesset Speaker and a longtime Netanyahu ally, Ohana benefits from consistent high placements in internal surveys, broad establishment backing, and the party's recent rule changes that reserved several top slots for the leadership while leaving the primary to determine the rest. Other contenders such as Tally Gotliv, Yariv Levin, and Eli Cohen trail with single-digit implied probabilities, reflecting lower projected support among eligible voters despite pockets of base popularity. Netanyahu's influence over the process and ongoing internal disputes over district rules and reserved places have further consolidated expectations around established loyalists rather than challengers.
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
Volume
$61,070Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 26, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 21, 2026, 7:34 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amir Ohana leads trader consensus in the Likud primary at 77.5% amid voting by roughly 140,000 party members on August 17, 2026, for positions on the Knesset slate ahead of the October national election. As Knesset Speaker and a longtime Netanyahu ally, Ohana benefits from consistent high placements in internal surveys, broad establishment backing, and the party's recent rule changes that reserved several top slots for the leadership while leaving the primary to determine the rest. Other contenders such as Tally Gotliv, Yariv Levin, and Eli Cohen trail with single-digit implied probabilities, reflecting lower projected support among eligible voters despite pockets of base popularity. Netanyahu's influence over the process and ongoing internal disputes over district rules and reserved places have further consolidated expectations around established loyalists rather than challengers.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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