**Forecast uncertainty in short-term numerical weather prediction models is the main driver behind the near-even market split on Istanbul’s minimum temperature for September 6.** Clear skies and light northeasterly flow under a stable high-pressure ridge favor strong nocturnal radiative cooling, yet the moderating influence of the Bosphorus and Sea of Marmara, combined with possible subtle shifts in wind speed or residual moisture, keeps projected lows clustered in the low-to-mid 20 °C range across recent ECMWF and regional runs. Historical September climatology for the city shows typical overnight minima near 18–20 °C, so any model disagreement on boundary-layer mixing or cloud development can easily swing the recorded minimum across the key resolution thresholds. Traders are therefore pricing in comparable probabilities for outcomes below 13 °C versus 23 °C or higher while assigning uniform weight to the intermediate bins, reflecting genuine sensitivity to the final 48-hour forecast updates.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 6?
13°C or below 100%
14°C 50%
15°C 50%
16°C 50%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 6, 2026
13°C or below
100%
14°C
50%
15°C
50%
16°C
50%
17°C
50%
18°C
26%
19°C
26%
20°C
26%
21°C
50%
22°C
50%
23°C or higher
49%
13°C or below 100%
14°C 50%
15°C 50%
16°C 50%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 6, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
14°C
$0 Vol.
50%
15°C
$0 Vol.
50%
16°C
$0 Vol.
50%
17°C
$0 Vol.
50%
18°C
$0 Vol.
26%
19°C
$0 Vol.
26%
20°C
$0 Vol.
26%
21°C
$0 Vol.
50%
22°C
$0 Vol.
50%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast uncertainty in short-term numerical weather prediction models is the main driver behind the near-even market split on Istanbul’s minimum temperature for September 6.**
Clear skies and light northeasterly flow under a stable high-pressure ridge favor strong nocturnal radiative cooling, yet the moderating influence of the Bosphorus and Sea of Marmara, combined with possible subtle shifts in wind speed or residual moisture, keeps projected lows clustered in the low-to-mid 20 °C range across recent ECMWF and regional runs. Historical September climatology for the city shows typical overnight minima near 18–20 °C, so any model disagreement on boundary-layer mixing or cloud development can easily swing the recorded minimum across the key resolution thresholds. Traders are therefore pricing in comparable probabilities for outcomes below 13 °C versus 23 °C or higher while assigning uniform weight to the intermediate bins, reflecting genuine sensitivity to the final 48-hour forecast updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 6, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast uncertainty in short-term numerical weather prediction models is the main driver behind the near-even market split on Istanbul’s minimum temperature for September 6.**
Clear skies and light northeasterly flow under a stable high-pressure ridge favor strong nocturnal radiative cooling, yet the moderating influence of the Bosphorus and Sea of Marmara, combined with possible subtle shifts in wind speed or residual moisture, keeps projected lows clustered in the low-to-mid 20 °C range across recent ECMWF and regional runs. Historical September climatology for the city shows typical overnight minima near 18–20 °C, so any model disagreement on boundary-layer mixing or cloud development can easily swing the recorded minimum across the key resolution thresholds. Traders are therefore pricing in comparable probabilities for outcomes below 13 °C versus 23 °C or higher while assigning uniform weight to the intermediate bins, reflecting genuine sensitivity to the final 48-hour forecast updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 6, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast uncertainty in short-term numerical weather prediction models is the main driver behind the near-even market split on Istanbul’s minimum temperature for September 6.** Clear skies and light northeasterly flow under a stable high-pressure ridge favor strong nocturnal radiative cooling, yet the moderating influence of the Bosphorus and Sea of Marmara, combined with possible subtle shifts in wind speed or residual moisture, keeps projected lows clustered in the low-to-mid 20 °C range across recent ECMWF and regional runs. Historical September climatology for the city shows typical overnight minima near 18–20 °C, so any model disagreement on boundary-layer mixing or cloud development can easily swing the recorded minimum across the key resolution thresholds. Traders are therefore pricing in comparable probabilities for outcomes below 13 °C versus 23 °C or higher while assigning uniform weight to the intermediate bins, reflecting genuine sensitivity to the final 48-hour forecast updates.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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