Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance indicate a low around 63°F for New York City on September 6, driven by northeast winds and partial clearing after a cooler air mass arrived earlier in the week. This places the most likely outcome near the 62–65°F bins, where market-implied odds cluster around 24–25% each, reflecting residual uncertainty in minimum temperature timing and urban heat island effects. Historical climatology shows an average low near 64.5°F, providing context for why traders assign negligible probability to extremes below 57°F or above 76°F. Updated model runs and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range as the event approaches.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateLowest temperature in NYC on September 6?
Lowest temperature in NYC on September 6?
58-59°F 46%
60-61°F 46%
68-69°F 46%
70-71°F 46%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 6, 2026
57°F or below
2%
58-59°F
46%
60-61°F
46%
62-63°F
20%
64-65°F
31%
66-67°F
28%
68-69°F
46%
70-71°F
46%
72-73°F
28%
74-75°F
28%
76°F or higher
2%
58-59°F 46%
60-61°F 46%
68-69°F 46%
70-71°F 46%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 6, 2026
57°F or below
$0 Vol.
2%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
46%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
46%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
20%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
31%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
28%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
46%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
46%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
28%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
28%
76°F or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance indicate a low around 63°F for New York City on September 6, driven by northeast winds and partial clearing after a cooler air mass arrived earlier in the week. This places the most likely outcome near the 62–65°F bins, where market-implied odds cluster around 24–25% each, reflecting residual uncertainty in minimum temperature timing and urban heat island effects. Historical climatology shows an average low near 64.5°F, providing context for why traders assign negligible probability to extremes below 57°F or above 76°F. Updated model runs and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range as the event approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 4, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$0Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 6, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 4, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance indicate a low around 63°F for New York City on September 6, driven by northeast winds and partial clearing after a cooler air mass arrived earlier in the week. This places the most likely outcome near the 62–65°F bins, where market-implied odds cluster around 24–25% each, reflecting residual uncertainty in minimum temperature timing and urban heat island effects. Historical climatology shows an average low near 64.5°F, providing context for why traders assign negligible probability to extremes below 57°F or above 76°F. Updated model runs and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range as the event approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 6, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 4, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance indicate a low around 63°F for New York City on September 6, driven by northeast winds and partial clearing after a cooler air mass arrived earlier in the week. This places the most likely outcome near the 62–65°F bins, where market-implied odds cluster around 24–25% each, reflecting residual uncertainty in minimum temperature timing and urban heat island effects. Historical climatology shows an average low near 64.5°F, providing context for why traders assign negligible probability to extremes below 57°F or above 76°F. Updated model runs and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range as the event approaches.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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