Peggy Flanagan maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for Minnesota’s open Senate seat due to consistent polling advantages of roughly 4–6 points on average, reinforced by a recent New York Times/Siena survey showing her ahead by 14 points. As lieutenant governor and the Democratic nominee after a strong primary win, Flanagan benefits from the state’s partisan lean, high Democratic enthusiasm, and endorsements including from retiring Senator Tina Smith. Republican Michele Tafoya has narrowed the gap by highlighting state fraud scandals and crime concerns, raising competitive funds and drawing some support in rural and exurban areas. With Election Day six days away, scenarios that could still shift the outcome include unusually high Republican turnout driven by national dynamics or further erosion of support for the Walz-Flanagan record on state issues.