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Halalan·New Zealand Election

Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?

icon for Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?
Halalan·New Zealand Election

Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?

Chris Hipkins 54%

Christopher Luxon 45%

Nicola Willis 2.9%

Winston Peters 1.2%

Polymarket
BAGO

Chris Hipkins 54%

Christopher Luxon 45%

Nicola Willis 2.9%

Winston Peters 1.2%

Polymarket
BAGO
icon for Chris Hipkins

Chris Hipkins

$2,703 Vol.

54%

icon for Christopher Luxon

Christopher Luxon

$2,028 Vol.

45%

icon for Nicola Willis

Nicola Willis

$1,082 Vol.

3%

icon for Winston Peters

Winston Peters

$1,086 Vol.

1%

icon for Carmel Sepuloni

Carmel Sepuloni

$854 Vol.

1%

icon for David Seymour

David Seymour

$741 Vol.

<1%

icon for Chlöe Swarbrick

Chlöe Swarbrick

$792 Vol.

<1%

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows the November 2026 election remains highly competitive, with Labour and the Greens frequently matching or exceeding National-led coalition support and Hipkins holding an edge over Luxon as preferred prime minister in several surveys. Economic conditions, including sluggish growth and unemployment trends, have weighed on the incumbent government's standing, narrowing Luxon's path while boosting opposition prospects. The tight market spread between Luxon and Hipkins reflects this uncertainty in final seat counts and coalition formation, where minor-party outcomes involving Peters, Willis, or Swarbrick could tip the balance. Late-campaign shifts in voter turnout or policy focus on cost-of-living issues remain key variables that could widen separation before election day.

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,287
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 7, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 29, 2026, 7:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows the November 2026 election remains highly competitive, with Labour and the Greens frequently matching or exceeding National-led coalition support and Hipkins holding an edge over Luxon as preferred prime minister in several surveys. Economic conditions, including sluggish growth and unemployment trends, have weighed on the incumbent government's standing, narrowing Luxon's path while boosting opposition prospects. The tight market spread between Luxon and Hipkins reflects this uncertainty in final seat counts and coalition formation, where minor-party outcomes involving Peters, Willis, or Swarbrick could tip the balance. Late-campaign shifts in voter turnout or policy focus on cost-of-living issues remain key variables that could widen separation before election day.

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,287
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 7, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 29, 2026, 7:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 7 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Chris Hipkins" sa 54%, sinusundan ng "Christopher Luxon" sa 45%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 54¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 54% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Apr 29, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?," i-browse ang 7 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?" ay "Chris Hipkins" sa 54%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 54% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Christopher Luxon" sa 45%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.