NY-21 remains a Republican-leaning district in upstate New York, where the open seat—vacated after Elise Stefanik’s prior moves toward higher office—has produced an 82% implied probability for Republican nominee Anthony Constantino against Democrat Blake Gendebien. Constantino secured the GOP nomination in the June 23 primary, while Gendebien won his party’s contest, setting up a November 3 general election. Recent internal Republican developments tied to Stefanik’s earlier UN ambassador nomination and gubernatorial bid have generated modest Democratic optimism and narrowed margins in this historically red district, yet trader consensus continues to reflect the area’s partisan baseline and limited evidence of a broad shift. No major new polls have altered the outlook ahead of the fall campaign.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateNY-21 House Election Winner
NY-21 House Election Winner
$52,748 Vol.
$52,748 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
80%
Democratic Party
18%
$52,748 Vol.
$52,748 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$24,496 Vol.
80%
Democratic Party
$28,252 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-21 remains a Republican-leaning district in upstate New York, where the open seat—vacated after Elise Stefanik’s prior moves toward higher office—has produced an 82% implied probability for Republican nominee Anthony Constantino against Democrat Blake Gendebien. Constantino secured the GOP nomination in the June 23 primary, while Gendebien won his party’s contest, setting up a November 3 general election. Recent internal Republican developments tied to Stefanik’s earlier UN ambassador nomination and gubernatorial bid have generated modest Democratic optimism and narrowed margins in this historically red district, yet trader consensus continues to reflect the area’s partisan baseline and limited evidence of a broad shift. No major new polls have altered the outlook ahead of the fall campaign.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$52,748Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-21 remains a Republican-leaning district in upstate New York, where the open seat—vacated after Elise Stefanik’s prior moves toward higher office—has produced an 82% implied probability for Republican nominee Anthony Constantino against Democrat Blake Gendebien. Constantino secured the GOP nomination in the June 23 primary, while Gendebien won his party’s contest, setting up a November 3 general election. Recent internal Republican developments tied to Stefanik’s earlier UN ambassador nomination and gubernatorial bid have generated modest Democratic optimism and narrowed margins in this historically red district, yet trader consensus continues to reflect the area’s partisan baseline and limited evidence of a broad shift. No major new polls have altered the outlook ahead of the fall campaign.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$52,748Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...NY-21 remains a Republican-leaning district in upstate New York, where the open seat—vacated after Elise Stefanik’s prior moves toward higher office—has produced an 82% implied probability for Republican nominee Anthony Constantino against Democrat Blake Gendebien. Constantino secured the GOP nomination in the June 23 primary, while Gendebien won his party’s contest, setting up a November 3 general election. Recent internal Republican developments tied to Stefanik’s earlier UN ambassador nomination and gubernatorial bid have generated modest Democratic optimism and narrowed margins in this historically red district, yet trader consensus continues to reflect the area’s partisan baseline and limited evidence of a broad shift. No major new polls have altered the outlook ahead of the fall campaign.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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