**Tarsier Pharma’s dominant 100% market-implied probability of no IPO before September 2026 stems from repeated postponements following its April 2026 F-1 filing and subsequent May–July amendments that outlined a modest $45–50 million NYSE American listing of roughly 5.5–5.6 million shares at $8–10 per share.** The Israel-based Phase 3 ophthalmic biotech, focused on steroid-free treatments for inflammatory eye diseases like uveitis, targeted a fully diluted market capitalization near $294–299 million at the midpoint. However, planned pricing windows around July 9–15 passed without execution amid broader softness in small-cap biotech IPO demand, limited pre-revenue fundamentals, and no fresh regulatory or clinical catalysts to accelerate timing. With the resolution cutoff at August 31, 2026, trader consensus has consolidated around further delay. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected final prospectus amendment and rapid pricing in the final days of August, though the absence of updates through late summer continues to anchor sentiment on postponement.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateTarsier Pharma IPO Closing Market Cap
Tarsier Pharma IPO Closing Market Cap
No IPO before September 2026 100.0%
<$250M <1%
$250M-$300M <1%
$300M-$350M <1%
$18,180 Vol.
$18,180 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<$250M
No
$250M-$300M
No
$300M-$350M
No
$350M-$400M
No
$400M-$450M
No
>$450M
No
No IPO before September 2026
Yes
No IPO before September 2026 100.0%
<$250M <1%
$250M-$300M <1%
$300M-$350M <1%
$18,180 Vol.
$18,180 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<$250M
$1,183 Vol.
No
$250M-$300M
$1,113 Vol.
No
$300M-$350M
$1,742 Vol.
No
$350M-$400M
$837 Vol.
No
$400M-$450M
$629 Vol.
No
>$450M
$1,136 Vol.
No
No IPO before September 2026
$11,539 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.**Tarsier Pharma’s dominant 100% market-implied probability of no IPO before September 2026 stems from repeated postponements following its April 2026 F-1 filing and subsequent May–July amendments that outlined a modest $45–50 million NYSE American listing of roughly 5.5–5.6 million shares at $8–10 per share.**
The Israel-based Phase 3 ophthalmic biotech, focused on steroid-free treatments for inflammatory eye diseases like uveitis, targeted a fully diluted market capitalization near $294–299 million at the midpoint. However, planned pricing windows around July 9–15 passed without execution amid broader softness in small-cap biotech IPO demand, limited pre-revenue fundamentals, and no fresh regulatory or clinical catalysts to accelerate timing. With the resolution cutoff at August 31, 2026, trader consensus has consolidated around further delay.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected final prospectus amendment and rapid pricing in the final days of August, though the absence of updates through late summer continues to anchor sentiment on postponement.
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 7, 2026, 9:12 AM ET
Volume
$18,180Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 7, 2026, 9:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Na-propose ang outcome: No
Walang dispute
Pinal na outcome: No
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.**Tarsier Pharma’s dominant 100% market-implied probability of no IPO before September 2026 stems from repeated postponements following its April 2026 F-1 filing and subsequent May–July amendments that outlined a modest $45–50 million NYSE American listing of roughly 5.5–5.6 million shares at $8–10 per share.**
The Israel-based Phase 3 ophthalmic biotech, focused on steroid-free treatments for inflammatory eye diseases like uveitis, targeted a fully diluted market capitalization near $294–299 million at the midpoint. However, planned pricing windows around July 9–15 passed without execution amid broader softness in small-cap biotech IPO demand, limited pre-revenue fundamentals, and no fresh regulatory or clinical catalysts to accelerate timing. With the resolution cutoff at August 31, 2026, trader consensus has consolidated around further delay.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected final prospectus amendment and rapid pricing in the final days of August, though the absence of updates through late summer continues to anchor sentiment on postponement.
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Volume
$18,180Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 7, 2026, 9:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Na-propose ang outcome: No
Walang dispute
Pinal na outcome: No
**Tarsier Pharma’s dominant 100% market-implied probability of no IPO before September 2026 stems from repeated postponements following its April 2026 F-1 filing and subsequent May–July amendments that outlined a modest $45–50 million NYSE American listing of roughly 5.5–5.6 million shares at $8–10 per share.** The Israel-based Phase 3 ophthalmic biotech, focused on steroid-free treatments for inflammatory eye diseases like uveitis, targeted a fully diluted market capitalization near $294–299 million at the midpoint. However, planned pricing windows around July 9–15 passed without execution amid broader softness in small-cap biotech IPO demand, limited pre-revenue fundamentals, and no fresh regulatory or clinical catalysts to accelerate timing. With the resolution cutoff at August 31, 2026, trader consensus has consolidated around further delay. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected final prospectus amendment and rapid pricing in the final days of August, though the absence of updates through late summer continues to anchor sentiment on postponement.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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