Traders assign a 95.5% probability to no US military draft authorization in 2026 because Congress has taken no steps to amend the Military Selective Service Act and restore induction authority, even after passing automatic Selective Service registration in the fiscal year 2026 NDAA. The all-volunteer force continues to meet recruitment needs amid ongoing conflicts, including with Iran, while lawmakers across parties have shown little appetite for conscription legislation. The Selective Service System itself states there is no draft at present and that registration changes alone do not trigger one. Realistic shifts could arise from a sudden surge in required troop levels exceeding volunteer capacity, prompting emergency congressional action before year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update5% tsansa
$521,268 Vol.
$521,268 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% tsansa
$521,268 Vol.
$521,268 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 95.5% probability to no US military draft authorization in 2026 because Congress has taken no steps to amend the Military Selective Service Act and restore induction authority, even after passing automatic Selective Service registration in the fiscal year 2026 NDAA. The all-volunteer force continues to meet recruitment needs amid ongoing conflicts, including with Iran, while lawmakers across parties have shown little appetite for conscription legislation. The Selective Service System itself states there is no draft at present and that registration changes alone do not trigger one. Realistic shifts could arise from a sudden surge in required troop levels exceeding volunteer capacity, prompting emergency congressional action before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Volume
$521,268Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 95.5% probability to no US military draft authorization in 2026 because Congress has taken no steps to amend the Military Selective Service Act and restore induction authority, even after passing automatic Selective Service registration in the fiscal year 2026 NDAA. The all-volunteer force continues to meet recruitment needs amid ongoing conflicts, including with Iran, while lawmakers across parties have shown little appetite for conscription legislation. The Selective Service System itself states there is no draft at present and that registration changes alone do not trigger one. Realistic shifts could arise from a sudden surge in required troop levels exceeding volunteer capacity, prompting emergency congressional action before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$521,268Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.5% probability to no US military draft authorization in 2026 because Congress has taken no steps to amend the Military Selective Service Act and restore induction authority, even after passing automatic Selective Service registration in the fiscal year 2026 NDAA. The all-volunteer force continues to meet recruitment needs amid ongoing conflicts, including with Iran, while lawmakers across parties have shown little appetite for conscription legislation. The Selective Service System itself states there is no draft at present and that registration changes alone do not trigger one. Realistic shifts could arise from a sudden surge in required troop levels exceeding volunteer capacity, prompting emergency congressional action before year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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