President Trump’s October 2025 announcement directing nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China triggered the market, yet subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Wright and other officials limited it to non-explosive systems tests or subcritical experiments already permitted under the zero-yield standard. The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive tests since 1992, supported by the Stockpile Stewardship Program that certifies warhead reliability without detonations. Resuming a full underground explosive test at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24–36 months of preparation per longstanding National Security Memoranda and faces legal, environmental, and diplomatic hurdles. As of August 2026, no such test has occurred, international reactions remain limited, and trader consensus assigns low implied probabilities to near-term resolution dates. Scheduled congressional oversight, NNSA budget decisions, and any new presidential directives within the resolution windows represent the main potential catalysts.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateNuclear test ng US sa pamamagitan ng...?
Nuclear test ng US sa pamamagitan ng...?
$770,068 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
Setyembre 30, 2026
1%
Disyembre 31, 2026
4%
$770,068 Vol.
Setyembre 30, 2026
$57,189 Vol.
1%
Disyembre 31, 2026
$52,068 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 announcement directing nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China triggered the market, yet subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Wright and other officials limited it to non-explosive systems tests or subcritical experiments already permitted under the zero-yield standard. The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive tests since 1992, supported by the Stockpile Stewardship Program that certifies warhead reliability without detonations. Resuming a full underground explosive test at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24–36 months of preparation per longstanding National Security Memoranda and faces legal, environmental, and diplomatic hurdles. As of August 2026, no such test has occurred, international reactions remain limited, and trader consensus assigns low implied probabilities to near-term resolution dates. Scheduled congressional oversight, NNSA budget decisions, and any new presidential directives within the resolution windows represent the main potential catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$770,068Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Mar 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 announcement directing nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China triggered the market, yet subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Wright and other officials limited it to non-explosive systems tests or subcritical experiments already permitted under the zero-yield standard. The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive tests since 1992, supported by the Stockpile Stewardship Program that certifies warhead reliability without detonations. Resuming a full underground explosive test at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24–36 months of preparation per longstanding National Security Memoranda and faces legal, environmental, and diplomatic hurdles. As of August 2026, no such test has occurred, international reactions remain limited, and trader consensus assigns low implied probabilities to near-term resolution dates. Scheduled congressional oversight, NNSA budget decisions, and any new presidential directives within the resolution windows represent the main potential catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$770,068Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Mar 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s October 2025 announcement directing nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China triggered the market, yet subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Wright and other officials limited it to non-explosive systems tests or subcritical experiments already permitted under the zero-yield standard. The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive tests since 1992, supported by the Stockpile Stewardship Program that certifies warhead reliability without detonations. Resuming a full underground explosive test at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24–36 months of preparation per longstanding National Security Memoranda and faces legal, environmental, and diplomatic hurdles. As of August 2026, no such test has occurred, international reactions remain limited, and trader consensus assigns low implied probabilities to near-term resolution dates. Scheduled congressional oversight, NNSA budget decisions, and any new presidential directives within the resolution windows represent the main potential catalysts.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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