Recent U.S. trade data and policy adjustments have kept expectations for the 2026 goods-and-services deficit tightly clustered around the $800 billion–$1 trillion range. The $901.5 billion shortfall recorded in 2025 reflected only modest narrowing despite elevated tariffs, as import volumes shifted from China toward Mexico, Vietnam, and other suppliers while exports grew modestly amid slower global demand. Early 2026 monthly readings have shown alternating widening and narrowing tied to capital-goods imports and energy-export fluctuations, leaving traders uncertain whether further tariff-driven import substitution or stronger domestic demand will produce another small decline or a rebound. These mixed signals sustain the close contest between the two leading brackets and make upcoming quarterly releases and any new trade measures the most likely catalysts for separation.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update$20,985 Vol.
$20,985 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
7%
500–600B
6%
600–700B
5%
700–800B
9%
800–900B
44%
900B–1T
36%
1T–1.1T
9%
1.1T+
5%
$20,985 Vol.
$20,985 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
$16,637 Vol.
7%
500–600B
$413 Vol.
6%
600–700B
$435 Vol.
5%
700–800B
$456 Vol.
9%
800–900B
$1,008 Vol.
44%
900B–1T
$971 Vol.
36%
1T–1.1T
$441 Vol.
9%
1.1T+
$624 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data and policy adjustments have kept expectations for the 2026 goods-and-services deficit tightly clustered around the $800 billion–$1 trillion range. The $901.5 billion shortfall recorded in 2025 reflected only modest narrowing despite elevated tariffs, as import volumes shifted from China toward Mexico, Vietnam, and other suppliers while exports grew modestly amid slower global demand. Early 2026 monthly readings have shown alternating widening and narrowing tied to capital-goods imports and energy-export fluctuations, leaving traders uncertain whether further tariff-driven import substitution or stronger domestic demand will produce another small decline or a rebound. These mixed signals sustain the close contest between the two leading brackets and make upcoming quarterly releases and any new trade measures the most likely catalysts for separation.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$20,985Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Feb 28, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data and policy adjustments have kept expectations for the 2026 goods-and-services deficit tightly clustered around the $800 billion–$1 trillion range. The $901.5 billion shortfall recorded in 2025 reflected only modest narrowing despite elevated tariffs, as import volumes shifted from China toward Mexico, Vietnam, and other suppliers while exports grew modestly amid slower global demand. Early 2026 monthly readings have shown alternating widening and narrowing tied to capital-goods imports and energy-export fluctuations, leaving traders uncertain whether further tariff-driven import substitution or stronger domestic demand will produce another small decline or a rebound. These mixed signals sustain the close contest between the two leading brackets and make upcoming quarterly releases and any new trade measures the most likely catalysts for separation.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$20,985Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Feb 28, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. trade data and policy adjustments have kept expectations for the 2026 goods-and-services deficit tightly clustered around the $800 billion–$1 trillion range. The $901.5 billion shortfall recorded in 2025 reflected only modest narrowing despite elevated tariffs, as import volumes shifted from China toward Mexico, Vietnam, and other suppliers while exports grew modestly amid slower global demand. Early 2026 monthly readings have shown alternating widening and narrowing tied to capital-goods imports and energy-export fluctuations, leaving traders uncertain whether further tariff-driven import substitution or stronger domestic demand will produce another small decline or a rebound. These mixed signals sustain the close contest between the two leading brackets and make upcoming quarterly releases and any new trade measures the most likely catalysts for separation.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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