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Politika·Mga Pangunahing Kaalaman

VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner
Politika·Mga Pangunahing Kaalaman

VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Elaine Luria 87%

Matt Strickler 7.7%

James Osyf 4.7%

Burk Stringfellow 3.6%

Polymarket
BAGO

Elaine Luria 87%

Matt Strickler 7.7%

James Osyf 4.7%

Burk Stringfellow 3.6%

Polymarket
BAGO

Elaine Luria

$1,330 Vol.

87%

Matt Strickler

$594 Vol.

8%

James Osyf

$1,112 Vol.

5%

Burk Stringfellow

$616 Vol.

4%

Patrick Mosolf

$1,514 Vol.

3%

Nila Devanath

$878 Vol.

1%

Nicolaus Sleister

$1,035 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former U.S. Rep. Elaine Luria leads trader consensus at 86.5% implied probability to win the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, bolstered by her prior incumbency, Navy veteran credentials, January 6 committee service, and superior fundraising that outpaced the Republican incumbent as of early February. Recent April developments, including key endorsements and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee placement in its Red-to-Blue program, have solidified her frontrunner status in this swing district race, while challengers like James Osyf (5.5%), Matt Strickler (4.2%), Patrick Mosolf (3.0%), and Burk Stringfellow (3.0%) lag due to limited name recognition and institutional support. Ahead of the May 26 filing deadline, no polls exist, but market pricing reflects Luria's path-to-victory advantages in a crowded field.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$7,079
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 16, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 25, 2025, 4:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former U.S. Rep. Elaine Luria leads trader consensus at 86.5% implied probability to win the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, bolstered by her prior incumbency, Navy veteran credentials, January 6 committee service, and superior fundraising that outpaced the Republican incumbent as of early February. Recent April developments, including key endorsements and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee placement in its Red-to-Blue program, have solidified her frontrunner status in this swing district race, while challengers like James Osyf (5.5%), Matt Strickler (4.2%), Patrick Mosolf (3.0%), and Burk Stringfellow (3.0%) lag due to limited name recognition and institutional support. Ahead of the May 26 filing deadline, no polls exist, but market pricing reflects Luria's path-to-victory advantages in a crowded field.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$7,079
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 16, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 25, 2025, 4:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 7 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Elaine Luria" sa 87%, sinusundan ng "Matt Strickler" sa 8%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 87¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 87% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Nov 25, 2025. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner," i-browse ang 7 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" ay "Elaine Luria" sa 87%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 87% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Matt Strickler" sa 8%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.