Recent hotter-than-expected CPI prints, including the April 2026 report showing year-over-year inflation at 3.3 percent amid elevated energy prices, have anchored trader expectations around a 3.75 percent federal funds rate by year-end 2026, with 59.7 percent implied probability on Polymarket. This pricing reflects the FOMC’s April decision to hold the target range at 3.50–3.75 percent and its characterization of inflation as “somewhat elevated,” reinforced by stable labor-market data and limited progress toward the 2 percent goal. Market-implied odds for 4.0 percent have risen to 17.4 percent as participants price in the possibility of modest hikes if core PCE remains above 2.7 percent through midyear. With Powell’s term expiring in May and the June FOMC meeting ahead, futures markets now assign low odds to cuts, favoring a higher-for-longer stance consistent with recent dot-plot revisions and Treasury yield movements.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateAno ang magiging rate ng Fed sa pagtatapos ng 2026?
Ano ang magiging rate ng Fed sa pagtatapos ng 2026?
3.75% 59.7%
4.0% 17.4%
3.25% 8%
3.5% 7%
$6,523,795 Vol.
$6,523,795 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
≤1.0%
<1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
1%
2.0%
<1%
2.25%
<1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
1%
3.0%
4%
3.25%
8%
3.5%
7%
3.75%
60%
4.0%
17%
4.25%
6%
≥ 4.5%
1%
3.75% 59.7%
4.0% 17.4%
3.25% 8%
3.5% 7%
$6,523,795 Vol.
$6,523,795 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
≤1.0%
$216,014 Vol.
<1%
1.25
$134,363 Vol.
1%
1.5%
$134,117 Vol.
<1%
1.75%
$134,015 Vol.
1%
2.0%
$246,062 Vol.
<1%
2.25%
$70,849 Vol.
<1%
2.5%
$158,852 Vol.
1%
2.75%
$46,024 Vol.
1%
3.0%
$454,840 Vol.
4%
3.25%
$51,537 Vol.
8%
3.5%
$190,202 Vol.
7%
3.75%
$518,453 Vol.
60%
4.0%
$1,358,661 Vol.
17%
4.25%
$413,730 Vol.
6%
≥ 4.5%
$2,396,078 Vol.
1%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent hotter-than-expected CPI prints, including the April 2026 report showing year-over-year inflation at 3.3 percent amid elevated energy prices, have anchored trader expectations around a 3.75 percent federal funds rate by year-end 2026, with 59.7 percent implied probability on Polymarket. This pricing reflects the FOMC’s April decision to hold the target range at 3.50–3.75 percent and its characterization of inflation as “somewhat elevated,” reinforced by stable labor-market data and limited progress toward the 2 percent goal. Market-implied odds for 4.0 percent have risen to 17.4 percent as participants price in the possibility of modest hikes if core PCE remains above 2.7 percent through midyear. With Powell’s term expiring in May and the June FOMC meeting ahead, futures markets now assign low odds to cuts, favoring a higher-for-longer stance consistent with recent dot-plot revisions and Treasury yield movements.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Volume
$6,523,795Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 9, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent hotter-than-expected CPI prints, including the April 2026 report showing year-over-year inflation at 3.3 percent amid elevated energy prices, have anchored trader expectations around a 3.75 percent federal funds rate by year-end 2026, with 59.7 percent implied probability on Polymarket. This pricing reflects the FOMC’s April decision to hold the target range at 3.50–3.75 percent and its characterization of inflation as “somewhat elevated,” reinforced by stable labor-market data and limited progress toward the 2 percent goal. Market-implied odds for 4.0 percent have risen to 17.4 percent as participants price in the possibility of modest hikes if core PCE remains above 2.7 percent through midyear. With Powell’s term expiring in May and the June FOMC meeting ahead, futures markets now assign low odds to cuts, favoring a higher-for-longer stance consistent with recent dot-plot revisions and Treasury yield movements.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volume
$6,523,795Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 9, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent hotter-than-expected CPI prints, including the April 2026 report showing year-over-year inflation at 3.3 percent amid elevated energy prices, have anchored trader expectations around a 3.75 percent federal funds rate by year-end 2026, with 59.7 percent implied probability on Polymarket. This pricing reflects the FOMC’s April decision to hold the target range at 3.50–3.75 percent and its characterization of inflation as “somewhat elevated,” reinforced by stable labor-market data and limited progress toward the 2 percent goal. Market-implied odds for 4.0 percent have risen to 17.4 percent as participants price in the possibility of modest hikes if core PCE remains above 2.7 percent through midyear. With Powell’s term expiring in May and the June FOMC meeting ahead, futures markets now assign low odds to cuts, favoring a higher-for-longer stance consistent with recent dot-plot revisions and Treasury yield movements.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong