No major Democrat has formally declared a 2028 bid as of early October 2026, leaving the first-announcement market dominated by uncertainty and positioning ahead of the November midterms. Traders assign “Other” the highest probability because several prominent names, including Kamala Harris, have signaled they will wait until after the elections to decide, while unlisted figures could move first. Andy Beshear’s recent South Carolina appearances and book tour have lifted his odds by demonstrating early outreach in the new primary calendar’s leadoff state. Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg follow, buoyed by explicit interviews weighing runs and campaign-style travel, though Newsom’s pledge not to challenge Harris if she enters has tempered expectations of an imminent announcement from either. Ro Khanna’s parallel early-state activity rounds out the top tier.