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Politika·Pangulo

Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?

icon for Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?
Politika·Pangulo

Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?

Gavin Newsom 46%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 46%

Jon Ossoff 46%

Kamala Harris 46%

Polymarket
BAGO

Gavin Newsom 46%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 46%

Jon Ossoff 46%

Kamala Harris 46%

Polymarket
BAGO

Gavin Newsom

$0 Vol.

46%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$0 Vol.

46%

Jon Ossoff

$0 Vol.

46%

Kamala Harris

$0 Vol.

46%

Josh Shapiro

$0 Vol.

46%

Pete Buttigieg

$0 Vol.

46%

Jon Stewart

$0 Vol.

46%

Andy Beshear

$0 Vol.

46%

Rahm Emanuel

$0 Vol.

46%

Ro Khanna

$0 Vol.

46%

Stephen A. Smith

$0 Vol.

46%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No prominent Democrat has formally announced a 2028 presidential bid as of mid-2026, leaving "Other" with the narrowest edge in trader consensus. Kamala Harris has stated she is "thinking about" another run, while Gavin Newsom has positioned himself through policy moves and public statements amid a federal probe, yet both have stopped short of launching campaigns. Other potential contenders including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, and Jon Ossoff have engaged in early outreach and polling without crossing into formal announcements. This shared reluctance to move first, combined with attention on the 2026 midterms and historical patterns of post-election timing, sustains the tight spread among listed options. Developments such as explicit statements, staff hires, or fundraising launches by any single figure could quickly shift probabilities.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.

The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.

An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.

If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Jul 9, 2026, 9:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No prominent Democrat has formally announced a 2028 presidential bid as of mid-2026, leaving "Other" with the narrowest edge in trader consensus. Kamala Harris has stated she is "thinking about" another run, while Gavin Newsom has positioned himself through policy moves and public statements amid a federal probe, yet both have stopped short of launching campaigns. Other potential contenders including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, and Jon Ossoff have engaged in early outreach and polling without crossing into formal announcements. This shared reluctance to move first, combined with attention on the 2026 midterms and historical patterns of post-election timing, sustains the tight spread among listed options. Developments such as explicit statements, staff hires, or fundraising launches by any single figure could quickly shift probabilities.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.

The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.

An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.

If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Jul 9, 2026, 9:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 11 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Gavin Newsom" sa 46%, sinusundan ng "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" sa 46%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 46¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 46% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Jul 9, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?," i-browse ang 11 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?" ay "Gavin Newsom" sa 46%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 46% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" sa 46%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.