Recent cabinet turnover, including the April 2026 ousters of Attorney General Pam Bondi and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer plus Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard's impending June resignation, has heightened trader focus on further exits. Speculation centers on performance pressures affecting figures like Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth amid prior scrutiny, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, with reports of internal frustrations and potential realignments. These dynamics sustain tight odds among the leaders while the 15.8% probability on no departures before 2027 captures uncertainty over timing and scope of any additional moves in the current administration.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateMike Waltz 31.7%
Lee Zeldin 30%
Howard Lutnick 28%
John Ratcliffe 23.9%
BAGO
BAGO
Dec 31, 2026
Mike Waltz
32%
Lee Zeldin
30%
Howard Lutnick
28%
John Ratcliffe
24%
Linda McMahon
19%
Russell T. Vought
18%
Jamieson Greer
17%
None before 2027
16%
Sean Duffy
19%
Scott Bessent
25%
Kelly Loeffler
6%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
5%
Marco Rubio
5%
Doug Collins
5%
J.D. Vance
5%
Brooke Rollins
15%
Chris Wright
4%
Scott Turner
1%
Pete Hegseth
-
Doug Burgum
-
Susie Wiles
34%
Mike Waltz 31.7%
Lee Zeldin 30%
Howard Lutnick 28%
John Ratcliffe 23.9%
BAGO
BAGO
Dec 31, 2026
Mike Waltz
$126 Vol.
32%
Lee Zeldin
$132 Vol.
30%
Howard Lutnick
$250 Vol.
28%
John Ratcliffe
$115 Vol.
24%
Linda McMahon
$209 Vol.
19%
Russell T. Vought
$150 Vol.
18%
Jamieson Greer
$80 Vol.
17%
None before 2027
$226 Vol.
16%
Sean Duffy
$162 Vol.
19%
Scott Bessent
$469 Vol.
25%
Kelly Loeffler
$308 Vol.
6%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$101 Vol.
5%
Marco Rubio
$75 Vol.
5%
Doug Collins
$76 Vol.
5%
J.D. Vance
$171 Vol.
5%
Brooke Rollins
$230 Vol.
15%
Chris Wright
$132 Vol.
4%
Scott Turner
$80 Vol.
1%
Pete Hegseth
$118 Vol.
-
Doug Burgum
$171 Vol.
-
Susie Wiles
$227 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent cabinet turnover, including the April 2026 ousters of Attorney General Pam Bondi and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer plus Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard's impending June resignation, has heightened trader focus on further exits. Speculation centers on performance pressures affecting figures like Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth amid prior scrutiny, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, with reports of internal frustrations and potential realignments. These dynamics sustain tight odds among the leaders while the 15.8% probability on no departures before 2027 captures uncertainty over timing and scope of any additional moves in the current administration.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$3,607Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent cabinet turnover, including the April 2026 ousters of Attorney General Pam Bondi and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer plus Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard's impending June resignation, has heightened trader focus on further exits. Speculation centers on performance pressures affecting figures like Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth amid prior scrutiny, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, with reports of internal frustrations and potential realignments. These dynamics sustain tight odds among the leaders while the 15.8% probability on no departures before 2027 captures uncertainty over timing and scope of any additional moves in the current administration.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$3,607Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cabinet turnover, including the April 2026 ousters of Attorney General Pam Bondi and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer plus Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard's impending June resignation, has heightened trader focus on further exits. Speculation centers on performance pressures affecting figures like Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth amid prior scrutiny, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, with reports of internal frustrations and potential realignments. These dynamics sustain tight odds among the leaders while the 15.8% probability on no departures before 2027 captures uncertainty over timing and scope of any additional moves in the current administration.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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