Recent unannounced Chinese naval drills involving over 100 vessels in early November, including area-denial operations across the western Pacific and simulated strikes, reflect Beijing’s preference for sustained pressure and normalization of presence rather than imminent invasion. Xi Jinping’s November speech reiterated peaceful reunification as the historical mission while omitting references to force, aligning with trader consensus that economic costs, U.S. deterrence commitments, and Taiwan’s defenses continue to outweigh immediate military action through 2026. Routine air and maritime activity persists without crossing into large-scale amphibious preparations. Diplomatic channels ahead of the APEC summit and potential Trump-Xi engagement further support expectations of managed tensions. Late shifts could arise from miscalculation during exercises, abrupt U.S. policy changes, or internal leadership developments altering risk assessments.