Trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of Greenland—a Danish autonomous territory and NATO ally—at just 6.5% likelihood for 2026, reflecting de-escalation from January rhetoric by President Trump threatening tariffs and military options to acquire the strategically vital Arctic outpost. Early tensions prompted Danish contingency plans like airfield demolitions and a bipartisan U.S. Senate bill barring funds for any occupation of NATO territory, but high-level diplomatic talks involving the U.S., Denmark, and Greenland—ongoing as of mid-May—have shifted focus to potential military base expansions under the 1951 defense agreement, with the White House describing progress as "optimistic." Low public support (7% favoring invasion) and absence of mobilization signals reinforce the improbable path to armed conflict barring unforeseen escalations like failed negotiations or Arctic security crises.