**Zhang Youxia, senior vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission and longtime Xi Jinping ally, was placed under investigation in late January 2026 for “serious violations of discipline and law,” the standard Chinese phrasing for corruption and political disloyalty.** Allegations reported in Western media include bribery tied to promotions and, in some accounts, leaking nuclear-related information. This fits Xi’s broader PLA purge pattern aimed at enforcing loyalty and centralizing control, but it has not yet produced a public trial or formal court sentence. Trader consensus heavily favors “No” (90.5%) because China’s military justice process for CMC-level figures moves slowly. Comparable cases, such as those of former defense ministers Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu (investigated in 2023 and sentenced only in May 2026), show multi-year gaps between investigation and any court outcome. As of mid-2026, no trial date or sentencing has been announced for Zhang, and historical patterns indicate formal imprisonment rulings rarely occur within eleven months of an investigation opening. Party disciplinary measures and removal from office can happen quickly, but criminal sentencing in open court is a separate, protracted step. Upcoming events that could shift odds remain limited through the end of 2026; any resolution before the deadline would require an unusually accelerated military court process without recent precedent at this rank. The market therefore reflects the “wisdom of crowds” assessment that structural timelines make a prison sentence before 2027 improbable.