US strikes on Abu Musa in July 2026, part of broader escalation targeting Iranian military sites in the Strait of Hormuz, have drawn renewed attention to the long-standing UAE-Iran sovereignty dispute over the island and its neighbors. Iran has held physical control since 1971 and maintains Revolutionary Guard bases, missile systems, and fast boats there despite repeated UAE diplomatic protests and GCC statements rejecting the occupation. No invasion, occupation by external forces, or negotiated transfer has occurred, and Iranian forces continue operations from the site. Trader consensus assigns very low probability to a shift in control by late August 2026, reflecting the absence of confirmed plans for seizure amid ongoing regional tensions and the island’s strategic defensive role.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAbu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$87,949 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$87,949 Обс.
August 31
$81,281 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US strikes on Abu Musa in July 2026, part of broader escalation targeting Iranian military sites in the Strait of Hormuz, have drawn renewed attention to the long-standing UAE-Iran sovereignty dispute over the island and its neighbors. Iran has held physical control since 1971 and maintains Revolutionary Guard bases, missile systems, and fast boats there despite repeated UAE diplomatic protests and GCC statements rejecting the occupation. No invasion, occupation by external forces, or negotiated transfer has occurred, and Iranian forces continue operations from the site. Trader consensus assigns very low probability to a shift in control by late August 2026, reflecting the absence of confirmed plans for seizure amid ongoing regional tensions and the island’s strategic defensive role.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Обсяг
$87,949Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US strikes on Abu Musa in July 2026, part of broader escalation targeting Iranian military sites in the Strait of Hormuz, have drawn renewed attention to the long-standing UAE-Iran sovereignty dispute over the island and its neighbors. Iran has held physical control since 1971 and maintains Revolutionary Guard bases, missile systems, and fast boats there despite repeated UAE diplomatic protests and GCC statements rejecting the occupation. No invasion, occupation by external forces, or negotiated transfer has occurred, and Iranian forces continue operations from the site. Trader consensus assigns very low probability to a shift in control by late August 2026, reflecting the absence of confirmed plans for seizure amid ongoing regional tensions and the island’s strategic defensive role.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$87,949Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US strikes on Abu Musa in July 2026, part of broader escalation targeting Iranian military sites in the Strait of Hormuz, have drawn renewed attention to the long-standing UAE-Iran sovereignty dispute over the island and its neighbors. Iran has held physical control since 1971 and maintains Revolutionary Guard bases, missile systems, and fast boats there despite repeated UAE diplomatic protests and GCC statements rejecting the occupation. No invasion, occupation by external forces, or negotiated transfer has occurred, and Iranian forces continue operations from the site. Trader consensus assigns very low probability to a shift in control by late August 2026, reflecting the absence of confirmed plans for seizure amid ongoing regional tensions and the island’s strategic defensive role.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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