Trader consensus prices "No" at 77.5% implied probability for any AI model reaching ≥90% on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027, driven by frontier models' current ceiling around 52%—OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Pro leads per May 13 leaderboards, up from 25% in late 2024 but stalled amid scaling challenges in research-level mathematical reasoning. Recent catalysts include Google DeepMind's AI Co-Mathematician agent achieving a Tier 4 record of 48% on May 12, doubling prior highs via stateful workflows, yet overall scores remain sub-60%. Controversy erupted as GPT-5.5 flagged fatal errors in one-third of problems, prompting Epoch AI's review and highlighting benchmark fragility. With seven months left, traders weigh rapid agentic gains against needs for novel proofs and compute limits, pricing slim odds for a 40-point leap.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
$66,262 Обс.
$66,262 Обс.
$66,262 Обс.
$66,262 Обс.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 77.5% implied probability for any AI model reaching ≥90% on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027, driven by frontier models' current ceiling around 52%—OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Pro leads per May 13 leaderboards, up from 25% in late 2024 but stalled amid scaling challenges in research-level mathematical reasoning. Recent catalysts include Google DeepMind's AI Co-Mathematician agent achieving a Tier 4 record of 48% on May 12, doubling prior highs via stateful workflows, yet overall scores remain sub-60%. Controversy erupted as GPT-5.5 flagged fatal errors in one-third of problems, prompting Epoch AI's review and highlighting benchmark fragility. With seven months left, traders weigh rapid agentic gains against needs for novel proofs and compute limits, pricing slim odds for a 40-point leap.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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