Recent polls show Die Linke and the CDU locked in a virtual tie near 20-23 percent just days before the September 20 Berlin state election, with the AfD and Greens clustered a few points behind. This narrow gap between the two leading parties, combined with volatile late-campaign dynamics after the CDU's candidate change and ongoing coalition negotiations, underpins trader consensus on minimal victory margins. Small leads for either Linke or CDU remain the highest-probability outcomes as undecided voters and turnout shifts could decide the result. No single recent event has produced decisive separation, leaving the race sensitive to final polling adjustments and election-night counting.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLinke 2-5% 31%
Linke 0-2% 19%
CDU 0-2% 18%
CDU 2-5% 15%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
Linke 0-2%
32%
Linke 2-5%
31%
Linke 5-10%
14%
Linke 10%+
4%
CDU 0-2%
18%
CDU 2-5%
15%
CDU 5-10%
8%
CDU 10%+
2%
AfD 0-2%
2%
AfD 2-5%
2%
AfD 5%+
2%
Another party wins
2%
Linke 2-5% 31%
Linke 0-2% 19%
CDU 0-2% 18%
CDU 2-5% 15%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
Linke 0-2%
$20 Обс.
32%
Linke 2-5%
$259 Обс.
31%
Linke 5-10%
$23 Обс.
14%
Linke 10%+
$95 Обс.
4%
CDU 0-2%
$0 Обс.
18%
CDU 2-5%
$0 Обс.
15%
CDU 5-10%
$0 Обс.
8%
CDU 10%+
$45 Обс.
2%
AfD 0-2%
$0 Обс.
2%
AfD 2-5%
$0 Обс.
2%
AfD 5%+
$0 Обс.
2%
Another party wins
$65 Обс.
2%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls show Die Linke and the CDU locked in a virtual tie near 20-23 percent just days before the September 20 Berlin state election, with the AfD and Greens clustered a few points behind. This narrow gap between the two leading parties, combined with volatile late-campaign dynamics after the CDU's candidate change and ongoing coalition negotiations, underpins trader consensus on minimal victory margins. Small leads for either Linke or CDU remain the highest-probability outcomes as undecided voters and turnout shifts could decide the result. No single recent event has produced decisive separation, leaving the race sensitive to final polling adjustments and election-night counting.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Ринок відкрито: Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
Обсяг
$507Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls show Die Linke and the CDU locked in a virtual tie near 20-23 percent just days before the September 20 Berlin state election, with the AfD and Greens clustered a few points behind. This narrow gap between the two leading parties, combined with volatile late-campaign dynamics after the CDU's candidate change and ongoing coalition negotiations, underpins trader consensus on minimal victory margins. Small leads for either Linke or CDU remain the highest-probability outcomes as undecided voters and turnout shifts could decide the result. No single recent event has produced decisive separation, leaving the race sensitive to final polling adjustments and election-night counting.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Обсяг
$507Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show Die Linke and the CDU locked in a virtual tie near 20-23 percent just days before the September 20 Berlin state election, with the AfD and Greens clustered a few points behind. This narrow gap between the two leading parties, combined with volatile late-campaign dynamics after the CDU's candidate change and ongoing coalition negotiations, underpins trader consensus on minimal victory margins. Small leads for either Linke or CDU remain the highest-probability outcomes as undecided voters and turnout shifts could decide the result. No single recent event has produced decisive separation, leaving the race sensitive to final polling adjustments and election-night counting.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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