Recent polling for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election places the SPD between 12% and 15%, with the latest INSA survey showing 15% amid a fragmented field where CDU, Die Linke, AfD, and Greens cluster between 16% and 20%. This positioning stems from SPD declines since the 2023 repeat election, driven by voter shifts toward Die Linke on housing affordability and social policy alongside CDU gains on security and economic management. Late-campaign volatility, including candidate adjustments and turnout patterns in urban districts, has kept SPD results within a narrow band across surveys. Traders view the 13-16% bracket as the consensus range because current evidence points to modest stabilization rather than sustained recovery or further erosion, though final-week polling shifts or differential mobilization could still push the outcome toward 16%+ or below 13%.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоBerlin State Election: SPD Vote Share?
Berlin State Election: SPD Vote Share?
13-16% 48%
16%+ 39%
10-13% 32%
<10% 23%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
<10%
23%
10-13%
32%
13-16%
48%
16%+
39%
13-16% 48%
16%+ 39%
10-13% 32%
<10% 23%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
<10%
$0 Обс.
23%
10-13%
$0 Обс.
32%
13-16%
$0 Обс.
48%
16%+
$0 Обс.
39%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election places the SPD between 12% and 15%, with the latest INSA survey showing 15% amid a fragmented field where CDU, Die Linke, AfD, and Greens cluster between 16% and 20%. This positioning stems from SPD declines since the 2023 repeat election, driven by voter shifts toward Die Linke on housing affordability and social policy alongside CDU gains on security and economic management. Late-campaign volatility, including candidate adjustments and turnout patterns in urban districts, has kept SPD results within a narrow band across surveys. Traders view the 13-16% bracket as the consensus range because current evidence points to modest stabilization rather than sustained recovery or further erosion, though final-week polling shifts or differential mobilization could still push the outcome toward 16%+ or below 13%.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election places the SPD between 12% and 15%, with the latest INSA survey showing 15% amid a fragmented field where CDU, Die Linke, AfD, and Greens cluster between 16% and 20%. This positioning stems from SPD declines since the 2023 repeat election, driven by voter shifts toward Die Linke on housing affordability and social policy alongside CDU gains on security and economic management. Late-campaign volatility, including candidate adjustments and turnout patterns in urban districts, has kept SPD results within a narrow band across surveys. Traders view the 13-16% bracket as the consensus range because current evidence points to modest stabilization rather than sustained recovery or further erosion, though final-week polling shifts or differential mobilization could still push the outcome toward 16%+ or below 13%.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election places the SPD between 12% and 15%, with the latest INSA survey showing 15% amid a fragmented field where CDU, Die Linke, AfD, and Greens cluster between 16% and 20%. This positioning stems from SPD declines since the 2023 repeat election, driven by voter shifts toward Die Linke on housing affordability and social policy alongside CDU gains on security and economic management. Late-campaign volatility, including candidate adjustments and turnout patterns in urban districts, has kept SPD results within a narrow band across surveys. Traders view the 13-16% bracket as the consensus range because current evidence points to modest stabilization rather than sustained recovery or further erosion, though final-week polling shifts or differential mobilization could still push the outcome toward 16%+ or below 13%.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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