Recent polls show a fragmented contest for Berlin’s September 20 state election, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and the Greens clustered between roughly 16% and 23% and smaller parties near the 5% threshold. This tight distribution increases uncertainty over direct-mandate wins in the 78 constituencies relative to second-vote shares, directly affecting the number of overhang and leveling seats added to the statutory 130. Trader probabilities therefore spread across the 143–163+ bins rather than converging on any single range. Final campaign dynamics, including youth turnout after the lowered voting age, last-weekend constituency results, and any late shifts among smaller lists, could still widen or narrow the eventual chamber size.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено163+ 24%
143–147 20%
<143 18%
148–152 18%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
<143
18%
143–147
20%
148–152
18%
153–157
18%
158–162
15%
163+
24%
163+ 24%
143–147 20%
<143 18%
148–152 18%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
<143
$0 Обс.
18%
143–147
$0 Обс.
20%
148–152
$0 Обс.
18%
153–157
$0 Обс.
18%
158–162
$0 Обс.
15%
163+
$0 Обс.
24%
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polls show a fragmented contest for Berlin’s September 20 state election, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and the Greens clustered between roughly 16% and 23% and smaller parties near the 5% threshold. This tight distribution increases uncertainty over direct-mandate wins in the 78 constituencies relative to second-vote shares, directly affecting the number of overhang and leveling seats added to the statutory 130. Trader probabilities therefore spread across the 143–163+ bins rather than converging on any single range. Final campaign dynamics, including youth turnout after the lowered voting age, last-weekend constituency results, and any late shifts among smaller lists, could still widen or narrow the eventual chamber size.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polls show a fragmented contest for Berlin’s September 20 state election, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and the Greens clustered between roughly 16% and 23% and smaller parties near the 5% threshold. This tight distribution increases uncertainty over direct-mandate wins in the 78 constituencies relative to second-vote shares, directly affecting the number of overhang and leveling seats added to the statutory 130. Trader probabilities therefore spread across the 143–163+ bins rather than converging on any single range. Final campaign dynamics, including youth turnout after the lowered voting age, last-weekend constituency results, and any late shifts among smaller lists, could still widen or narrow the eventual chamber size.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show a fragmented contest for Berlin’s September 20 state election, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and the Greens clustered between roughly 16% and 23% and smaller parties near the 5% threshold. This tight distribution increases uncertainty over direct-mandate wins in the 78 constituencies relative to second-vote shares, directly affecting the number of overhang and leveling seats added to the statutory 130. Trader probabilities therefore spread across the 143–163+ bins rather than converging on any single range. Final campaign dynamics, including youth turnout after the lowered voting age, last-weekend constituency results, and any late shifts among smaller lists, could still widen or narrow the eventual chamber size.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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