Former Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) resigned from Congress on April 13 amid sexual misconduct allegations from four women, including claims of rape and assault, derailing his California gubernatorial bid. The DOJ opened a probe shortly after, joined by Los Angeles authorities and Manhattan DA on specific incidents, while the House Ethics Committee reviewed related complaints and revived scrutiny of past ties to suspected Chinese operative Christine Fang. No formal charges or indictment have emerged by mid-May despite referrals over mortgage issues and office misuse, reflecting slow investigative timelines and lack of probable cause announcements. Traders price an 85% "No" chance by May 31, betting procedural hurdles outweigh accelerated scrutiny absent new evidence.