Nicolás Maduro faces US federal charges including narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, and conspiracy to torture political opponents after his January 2026 capture and transfer to Brooklyn detention. Recent October 2026 arraignment proceedings added torture allegations, prompting not-guilty pleas and a two-week delay pushing the trial to June 2027. Traders assign the highest probability to no prison time because unresolved head-of-state immunity arguments, extensive pre-trial motions through 2027, and Venezuela’s interim leadership’s US cooperation create substantial procedural and political variables that could lead to dismissal, a plea without incarceration, or no sentencing by the December 31, 2027 resolution deadline. These factors outweigh the mandatory minimum sentences exceeding 50 years if convicted on all counts.